845
FXUS64 KCRP 131118
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
618 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
- MODERATE TO EXTREME RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK, WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES 110 TO 115, ESPECIALLY TODAY AND
THURSDAY.
- BORDERLINE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS DAILY.
- LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCE THROUGH THURSDAY, LIMITED 20% FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MID-LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE PERIOD
LEADING TO WARM AND MOSTLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED
SEABREEZE CONVECTION EACH DAY. AS WE APPROACH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, WE WILL SEE AN INVERTED TROUGH WITH SOME ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE IN THE REGION, SURGING PWATS
AROUND 2.0 INCHES (75TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY). DUE TO THESE
FACTORS COUPLED WITH SMALL SCALE LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR LOW RAIN
CHANCES (~20%) DURING THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR SHORT-FUSED HEAT RELATED
PRODUCTS. WE COULD SEE PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 110 TO 115 WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES TO
MODERATE TO PREDOMINATELY MAJOR HEATRISK CONDITIONS, THOUGH SOME
AREAS OF EXTREME HEATRISK WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE BRUSH COUNTRY. AN
ADDITIONAL RISK FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER EXISTS OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS INTO THE NEXT WEEK DUE TO LOW RH (<30%) AND SUSTAINED 20 MPH
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WE STRONGLY ENCOURAGE THE PRACTICE OF
HEAT SAFETY IN THESE CONDITIONS. TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS AND REMEMBER
TO STAY HYDRATED, CHECK THOSE BACKSEATS, AND AVOID LONG EXPOSURE IN
THESE TEMPERATURES. FOR MORE INFORMATION BE SURE TO CHECK OUT
WEATHER.GOV/HEATSAFETY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
WINDS HAVE WEAKENED MORE THAN EXPECTED INLAND AND VIS REDUCTIONS
ARE NOTED FOR ALI AND VCT THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW MORE LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS MOISTURE RETURNS, BUT MOST OF THE
AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. HAVE ADDED TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR VCT WHERE MOISTURE INCREASE WILL BE THE STRONGEST. EXPECT
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, PERSISTING INTO
THE EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS WEEK FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. BAYS AND WATERS ALONG THE
COAST SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS WILL HAVE A FRESH BREEZE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED OVER THIS PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES (~20%) WILL BE ON THE
RISE OVER THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
MIN RHS WILL BE IN THE 20-30% RANGE EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND
IN THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LOW RHS, ERCS IN
THE 70-89TH PERCENTILE RANGE, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THIS REGION. ANOTHER FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED FOR TODAY FROM 1 PM THROUGH 9 PM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 94 80 94 80 / 0 10 20 0
VICTORIA 97 77 97 78 / 0 10 20 0
LAREDO 105 79 104 79 / 0 0 20 0
ALICE 100 77 99 77 / 0 0 20 0
ROCKPORT 92 82 92 82 / 0 10 20 0
COTULLA 106 78 104 78 / 0 0 20 0
KINGSVILLE 98 78 97 78 / 0 10 20 0
NAVY CORPUS 90 82 91 82 / 0 10 30 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NP/92
AVIATION...PH/83
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page