391
FXUS64 KCRP 141128
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
628 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
- MODERATE TO EXTREME RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK, WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES 108 TO 112.
- BORDERLINE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS DAILY.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
EXPECT MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO CONTINUE DOMINATING THE PERIOD LEADING
TO WARM AND MOSTLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED
SEABREEZE CONVECTION EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING, WE WILL
SEE AN INVERTED TROUGH WITH SOME ASSOCIATED VORTICITY TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE PUSHING ONSHORE. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE IN THE REGION, SURGING PWATS AROUND 2.0
INCHES (75TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY). DUE TO THESE FACTORS
COUPLED WITH SMALL SCALE LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR LOW RAIN CHANCES (20-
30%) DURING THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR SHORT-FUSED HEAT RELATED
PRODUCTS. WE COULD SEE PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 110 TO 115 WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES TO
MODERATE TO PREDOMINATELY MAJOR HEATRISK CONDITIONS, THOUGH SOME
AREAS OF EXTREME HEATRISK WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE BRUSH COUNTRY. AN
ADDITIONAL RISK FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER EXISTS OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS INTO THE NEXT WEEK DUE TO LOW RH (<30%) AND SUSTAINED 20 MPH
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WE STRONGLY ENCOURAGE THE PRACTICE OF
HEAT SAFETY IN THESE CONDITIONS. TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS AND REMEMBER
TO STAY HYDRATED, CHECK THOSE BACKSEATS, AND AVOID LONG EXPOSURE IN
THESE TEMPERATURES. FOR MORE INFORMATION BE SURE TO CHECK OUT
WEATHER.GOV/HEATSAFETY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE HELD SO FAR THIS MORNING, AND LIKELY WILL
THROUGH DAY-BREAK, BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS OFTEN HAPPENS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
WILL HAVE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY, MAINLY AROUND
VCT. DID ADD A VCSH FOR VCT SITE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. OTHER SITES HAVE TOO LOW PROBABILITY TO INCLUDE
MENTION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS WEEK FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. BAYS AND WATERS ALONG THE
COAST SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS WILL HAVE A FRESH BREEZE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1 AM. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 7
AM. RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) WILL BE ON THE RISE OVER THE NEARSHORE AND
OFFSHORE WATERS THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
MIN RHS WILL BE IN THE 20-30% RANGE EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND
IN THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LOW RHS, ERCS IN
THE 70-89TH PERCENTILE RANGE, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THIS REGION. DIDN'T ISSUE A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT, THOUGH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE BRUSH COUNTRY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 94 80 94 78 / 20 0 0 0
VICTORIA 96 78 98 74 / 30 0 10 0
LAREDO 104 79 104 77 / 10 0 0 0
ALICE 99 77 99 75 / 20 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 92 82 91 81 / 30 0 10 0
COTULLA 104 78 104 75 / 10 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 97 78 97 76 / 20 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 90 83 90 82 / 20 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NP/92
AVIATION...PH/83
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