009
FXUS64 KCRP 151132
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
632 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
- MODERATE TO EXTREME RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK, WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES 110 TO 115.
- BORDERLINE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS DAILY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. HOT
AND GENERALLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL
BEND TO AROUND 105 DEGREES OVER PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK AROUND 110+ DEGREES AT TIMES,
MAINTAINING A MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.
BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES, WITH LITTLE DIRECT INFLUENCE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
HOWEVER, SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO INDICATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SHOULD THIS FEATURE
MATERIALIZE, POCKETS OF DEEPER MOISTURE COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF THE REGION AND LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND.
OVERALL, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BELOW NORMAL PWATS PRECEDING THIS
WEAK FEATURE AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW SO VERY LOW POPS ARE
WARRANTED FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS NOTED AT ALI AND VCT EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT
OTHER SITES REMAIN VFR. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN PARTS OF
SOUTH TEXAS, BUT MOST LIKELY TO AVOID TERMINALS, THOUGH COULD
APPROACH VCT. VFR AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS LOOK
MORE LIKELY TONIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED IN SEVERAL TAFS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
A GENTLE TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW CAN GENERALLY BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLOW AT TIMES. WINDS
SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AROUND MID-WEEK. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-4 FEET. RAIN CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
REMAIN VERY LOW, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10%, WITH ISOLATED AREAS
OFFSHORE UP TO AROUND 20% ON SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
GUSTY WINDS, HOT TEMPERATURES, DRY FUELS, AND LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
WILL OVERLAP MINIMUM RH VALUES NEAR 25%. ERC VALUES ARE APPROACHING
THE 90TH PERCENTILE, WHILE RFTI VALUES OF 2-3 ARE FORECAST TOMORROW,
RESULTING IN NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL
BE ISSUED FOR NOW, THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
FOR THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 97 78 97 78 / 10 0 0 0
VICTORIA 98 74 99 75 / 10 0 0 0
LAREDO 104 77 103 77 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 99 75 99 74 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 92 81 92 81 / 20 0 10 0
COTULLA 104 75 104 75 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 98 76 98 76 / 10 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 91 82 91 81 / 20 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BF/80
AVIATION...PH/83
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