661
FXUS64 KCRP 160554
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1254 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES AROUND 110
- MONITORING DAILY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MID-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS WESTWARD ACROSS TEXAS EARLY THIS WEEK BEFORE
GRADUALLY REESTABLISHING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AROUND
MIDWEEK. SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN BENEATH THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, MAINTAINING HOT AND GENERALLY RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM THE
90S ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND TO THE COASTAL PLAINS AND AROUND 105
DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS, WITH PEAK HEAT
INDICES AROUND 110 DEGREES AT TIMES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE
TO MAJOR RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE WEEK.
DESPITE THE GRADUAL WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH,
SUFFICIENT RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, KEEPING MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES OUT OF
THE FORECAST. OVERALL, EXPECT LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE WITH
CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES, AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
TYPICAL DIURNAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT, THEN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO GUST AS STRONG AS SATURDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME, OCCASIONALLY
INCREASING TO FRESH LEVELS (BF 5), PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEK, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY. PERSISTENT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, THOUGH OCCASIONAL STRONGER
AFTERNOON WINDS MAY BRIEFLY OVERLAP THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES. WITH NO MEANINGFUL RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND,
DRYING FUELS COMBINED WITH THE CONTINUED HEAT WILL SUPPORT A
PERSISTENT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 95 77 95 78 / 0 0 10 0
VICTORIA 98 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 103 77 104 78 / 0 0 0 10
ALICE 98 75 100 74 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 91 81 91 81 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 103 75 103 77 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 96 76 97 76 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 89 81 90 81 / 0 0 10 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BF/80
AVIATION...PH/83
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