519
FXUS64 KCRP 031123
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
623 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
- MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY EXTREME RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, HEAT INDICES 105-113
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING
- WIDESPREAD LOW RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) BEGINNING THIS LABOR DAY
WEEKEND WITH GREATER CHANCES (40-60%) OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS YESTERDAY ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS, WITH CONVECTION FROM TD EDOUARD REMAINING TO OUR NORTHEAST
AND HEAT CONCERNS GROWING THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT ALONG THE INLAND COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA COUNTY WHERE
HEAT INDICES OF 110 OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST 2 HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BE PRESENT OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING
BELOW 30% MID-AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
REMNANTS OF EDOUARD ALOFT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY INTO SOUTH TEXAS
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, MEANDERING OVER THE AREA THROUGH LABOR DAY
WEEKEND, BEFORE MOVING WELL INTO MEXICO AS AN INVERTED TROUGH RIDES
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ORIGINATING OUT OF THE SE CONUS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE TWO FEATURES: REMNANTS OF EDOUARD AND
ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL TROUGH USHERING 75TH PERCENTILE MOISTURE (PWATS
AROUND 2.0"), WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD DAILY LOW RAIN CHANCES (20-
35%) BEGINNING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY, WITH GREATER CHANCES (35-60%)
OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. DIURNAL SEABREEZE CONVECTION TAPPING
INTO THE MID-LEVEL LIFT SUPPORT AND ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
POPCORN LIKE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG OUTFLOWS.
THE ADDITIONAL SKY COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HOPEFULLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AND THEREFORE LOWER THE OVERALL HEAT RISK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL SO FAR THIS MORNING BUT MVFR VSBYS STILL
POSSIBLE FOR ALI. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25KT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH 2-3 FT SEAS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF LULL IN RAIN ACTIVITY TODAY,
BEFORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AGAIN. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LIGHT BELOW 20 MPH, RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO 24-30
PERCENT WITH FUELS DRY AND ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC) VALUES
ABOVE THE 80TH PERCENTILE. MOISTURE AND SKY COVER INCREASES HEADING
INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, LIMITING THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY STAYS ABOVE 30 PERCENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 97 79 95 78 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 100 77 96 75 / 10 10 40 20
LAREDO 106 79 105 79 / 0 10 10 10
ALICE 103 75 101 75 / 0 0 0 10
ROCKPORT 93 81 93 81 / 0 0 10 10
COTULLA 105 77 103 77 / 0 0 0 10
KINGSVILLE 101 77 99 77 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 91 82 91 82 / 0 0 0 10
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 97 79 95 78 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 100 77 96 75 / 10 10 40 20
LAREDO 106 79 105 79 / 0 10 10 10
ALICE 103 75 101 75 / 0 0 0 10
ROCKPORT 93 81 93 81 / 0 0 10 10
COTULLA 105 77 103 77 / 0 0 0 10
KINGSVILLE 101 77 99 77 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 91 82 91 82 / 0 0 0 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ234-241>244-246-247.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...BF/80
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