228
FXUS64 KCRP 040711
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
211 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
- MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HIGH RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND, HEAT INDICES 105-110
- LOW CHANCES (15-30%) FOR SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGHER CHANCES (30-50%) AROUND THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS THIS
WEEKEND.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-40%) FOR SEA BREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. MID-LEVEL
REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS ONCE EDOUARD WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARD OVER
SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND MOVE INTO MEXICO LATE TONIGHT, USHERING IN
MOISTURE WELL ABOVE-NORMAL (PWATS 2-2.25"). THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR CONVECTION IN SOUTH TEXAS, WITH
MORE MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND WHERE MID-LEVEL PVA MAXIMA RESIDES.
THEREFORE A 20-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS TODAY, WITH EVERYWHERE ELSE
WEST VERY LOW AT A 10-20%. I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED FOR A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SEABREEZE GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE
OF MOISTURE AND WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE A TAD THIS LABOR DAY WEEKEND TO 30-50%, WITH LINGERING
CHANCES INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL WAVES
CONTINUE TO USHER IN MOISTURE AND FEED SEABREEZE CONVECTION.
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT AND LEAST
CONFIDENT OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE GREATER RAIN AND SKY
COVERAGE MAY BE IN PLAY. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST HREF PROBABILITIES,
MAX TEMPERATURES ARE NOW ONLY ABOUT AT A 20% CHANCE TO GO BELOW 95
DEGREES OVER VICTORIA. THE ADDITIONAL SKY COVER AND RAIN COVERAGE
SHOULD KEEP US JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE WBGT UIL RISK WILL REMAIN IN THE MODERATE RISK
LEVEL WITH HEAT INDICES 105-110 AND CORRESPONDING AIR TEMPERATURES
FROM THE MID 90S ALONG THE COAST TO 100-105 OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THERE'S A
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR VCT TOMORROW, SOME OF
WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES AND REDUCED VSBYS.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 25KT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH 2-3 FT SEAS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND WILL BE NORTH AND
EAST OF PORT ARANSAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 30% THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
BRUSH COUNTRY, BUT LONGEVITY SHOULD BE SHORT WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING OVER SOUTH TEXAS FROM REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS ONCE EDOUARD.
MOISTURE AND SKY COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH LABOR DAY
WEEKEND, LIMITING THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY STAYS AROUND 35 PERCENT OR
GREATER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 97 79 95 78 / 10 10 20 0
VICTORIA 96 76 96 75 / 40 20 50 20
LAREDO 104 79 102 78 / 10 10 20 30
ALICE 100 75 100 75 / 10 10 30 0
ROCKPORT 92 81 92 79 / 20 20 30 10
COTULLA 102 77 101 77 / 10 10 20 10
KINGSVILLE 98 77 98 77 / 10 10 20 0
NAVY CORPUS 91 82 91 81 / 10 20 20 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...BF/80
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