783
FXUS64 KCRP 050007
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
707 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
- MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HIGH RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND, HEAT INDICES 105-110
- LOW CHANCES (15-30%) FOR SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGHER CHANCES (30-50%) AROUND THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS THIS
WEEKEND.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-40%) FOR SEA BREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS NOT MOVED MUCH TODAY AND HAS KEPT
CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. WE'RE STILL EXPECTING IT TO START
DRIFTING MORE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AND WILL KEEP A 20-30%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STORMS IN THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. FARTHER SOUTH
DID ADD SOME LOW (20%) POPS ALONG THE SEABREEZE CONSIDERING THE
CONVECTION THAT DID DEVELOP YESTERDAY. PWATS ARE A BIT LOWER THOUGH,
SO IT'S NOT A CERTAINTY THAT WE'LL GET ANY DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASED MOISTURE MOVE MORE
OVER THE REGION TOMORROW AND SUNDAY WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ACTIVITY. WE'RE STILL ONLY LOOKING AT 20-30% FOR MOST OF
THE AREA WITH UP TO 50% IN THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. MONDAY LOOKS A
BIT QUIETER AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION BEFORE
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
INCREASING POPS TO 20-30 ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD,
BUT IF/WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE THROUGH AROUND PEAK HEATING TIME,
SOME THESE LOCATIONS COULD BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR ANY GIVEN DAY.
THE ADDITIONAL SKY COVER AND RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD KEEP US JUST BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE WBGT UIL
RISK WILL REMAIN IN THE MODERATE RISK LEVEL WITH HEAT INDICES 105-
110 AND CORRESPONDING AIR TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 90S ALONG THE
COAST TO 100-105 OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM IS CURRENTLY
FOCUSED OVER WEBB COUNTY, WITH THE SEABREEZE PUSHING THROUGH
WESTWARD. VCSH AND TEMPO FOR RAIN HAS BEEN ADDED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS FOR LRD, BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISE IF A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO ALSO ACCOMPANIES. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH TONIGHT, AS
WELL AS WINDS OVERNIGHT, BECOMING CALM OVER THE INLAND COASTAL
PLAINS. SURFACE MOISTURE AND CALM WINDS WILL POSE A FOG THREAT
FROM ALI TO VCT, WITH WINDS ALOFT WEAKER OVER VCT, I DO THINK THE
CHANCES FOR DENSER FOG IS GREATER OVER VCT BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS, WITH SPOTTY SEABREEZE CONVECTION OVER THE
BRUSH COUNTRY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH 2-3 FT SEAS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE'LL HAVE LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES
DAILY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BE NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 97 78 97 / 0 10 10 30
VICTORIA 76 96 75 97 / 10 40 30 60
LAREDO 79 103 79 102 / 20 10 30 40
ALICE 75 100 75 100 / 0 20 10 30
ROCKPORT 81 93 81 93 / 10 20 30 40
COTULLA 77 101 77 101 / 10 10 10 30
KINGSVILLE 77 99 77 98 / 0 10 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 82 93 81 92 / 10 10 20 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...EMF/94
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