956
FXUS64 KCRP 051129
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
629 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
- MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HIGH RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND, HEAT INDICES 105-110
- LOW CHANCES (15-30%) FOR SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGHER CHANCES (30-50%) AROUND THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS THIS
WEEKEND.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-40%) FOR SEA BREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. INCREASING CHANCES WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
THE WEAKENING MID-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING, USHERING MOISTURE INTO SOUTH TEXAS. ABOVE
NORMAL PWATS IN THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS (2.1-2.3") AND ELSEWHERE
AROUND 2", WILL HELP WITH THE FORMATION OF SEABREEZE CONVECTION
THROUGH THIS LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ULTIMATELY, COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE
BEST OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WITH LESS COVERAGE FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEST. LOW RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
MAINLY DUE TO THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, A MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH PROGRESSES WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF,
RIDING THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS MID-LEVEL FEATURE
WILL ACT AS AN ADDITIONAL LIFTING MECHANISM TO THE SEABREEZE,
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY TO 30-60%.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER, WITH THE
INCREASED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER, THUS BRINGING TEMPERATURES MORE CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPORARILY. OTHERWISE, WE WILL BE FLIRTING WITH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105-110 ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NONETHELESS, A MODERATE TO
HIGH HEAT RISK WILL BE PRESENT EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
CURRENTLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS BUT MVFR REMAINS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH VFR QUICKLY
RETURNING BY LATE MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
LIKELY TO GUST UP TO AROUND 20-25KT. THERE'S A LOW CHANCE (20-30%)
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS
THE REGION. ACTIVITY SHOULD CEASE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS CAN GENERALLY BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING SOMEWHAT
RESTRICTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WILL
INCREASE TO GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE'LL HAVE LOW TO
MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES DAILY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST
CHANCES OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES, KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ABOVE 30 PERCENT AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 95 78 95 78 / 20 0 20 10
VICTORIA 97 75 97 75 / 40 10 50 20
LAREDO 102 77 101 77 / 20 30 30 20
ALICE 100 75 100 75 / 20 0 20 10
ROCKPORT 93 81 93 81 / 20 10 20 10
COTULLA 100 76 100 77 / 20 20 20 20
KINGSVILLE 99 76 98 76 / 20 0 20 0
NAVY CORPUS 91 81 91 81 / 10 0 10 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DC
AVIATION...BF/80
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