387
FXUS64 KCRP 061135
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
635 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
- MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HIGH RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS
THROUGH THIS WEEK, PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES 105-110
- LOW CHANCES (15-40%) FOR SEABREEZE-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING, AN OUTFLOW FROM LAST NIGHT'S CONVECTION
OVER MEXICO DRIFTED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY, BRINGING
A SURPRISING SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
AS OF WRITING, THE OUTFLOW IS JUST NOW MAKING IT TO DUVAL AND
MCMULLEN COUNTIES WITH ACTIVITY SEEMING TO WANE AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES MORE STABLE.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS UNDERESTIMATED PRECIP COVERAGE OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY THE PAST FEW DAYS. THEREFORE, I'VE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO
AT LEAST 30% INSTEAD OF THE LESS THAN 15% NBM WANTED TO PUT IN FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. DUVAL COUNTY HAS NOTORIOUSLY BEEN THE SWEET SPOT FOR
STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS, SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT FOR IF THE PATTERN CONTINUES. MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS WEEK, AROUND OR GREATER THAN
2.0" PWATS, AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR NORTH FLATTENS OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS AND SOUTH TEXAS REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.
WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL OCCASIONALLY PROPAGATE THEIR WAY
WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF INTO SOUTH TEXAS, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
MIDWEEK. MOST CONVECTION WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE, BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ABLE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
OUTFLOWS CAN ACT AS AN ADDITIONAL LIFTING MECHANISM FOR POPCORN
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP.
NO RELIEF IN SIGHT FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL HEAT, WITH APPARENT
TEMPERATURES 105-110 AND AIR TEMPERATURES REACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS
OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING, RETURNING TO VFR AROUND
14Z. EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY DIURNAL WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25KT
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES (20-30%) FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO END AROUND 03-06Z FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WILL
INCREASE TO GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET. WE'LL HAVE LOW RAIN CHANCES DAILY
WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO NEGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY STAYS ABOVE
30 PERCENT. DAILY LOW RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SEABREEZE WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GENERALLY SUSTAINED BETWEEN 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 96 78 97 78 / 10 10 10 0
VICTORIA 98 76 100 76 / 40 0 30 0
LAREDO 100 77 101 78 / 20 20 0 0
ALICE 101 75 101 75 / 20 20 20 0
ROCKPORT 93 81 93 81 / 10 0 10 0
COTULLA 99 76 101 77 / 30 20 10 0
KINGSVILLE 99 76 100 76 / 10 10 20 0
NAVY CORPUS 91 81 91 82 / 10 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...BF/80
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