587
FXUS64 KCRP 081809
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
109 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS EACH AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASED EXTREME RISK THIS WEEKEND
- LOW CHANCES (10-20%) THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GREATER CHANCES
(20-45%) WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
LIKE A BROKEN RECORD PLAYER... THE TUNE OF HOT AND LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
STILL LIKE THE DAYS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS THANKS TO AN INVERTED MID-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AND WITH TROPICAL-MOISTURE ADVECTING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH PWATS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2.00-2.25" (NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE) AND
THE ADDED ASCENT FROM THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH, ANY SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS
CAN QUICKLY DROP 0.5 INCH. IN THE STRONGEST STORM, ISOLATED 1-2 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY FALL AROUND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA. FURTHER INLAND AND INTO
THE BRUSH COUNTRY, RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL PRIMARILY BE SEABREEZE
DRIVEN COMBINED WITH ANY OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS FROM STORMS ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS, AND THUS MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS.
WHILE THE DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS HAS BEEN SO DESPERATELY NEEDED
TO SLOW DOWN THE SPREAD OF DROUGHT, UNFORTUNATELY IT COMES AT THE
EXPENSE OF DAILY HOT TEMPERATURES, STILL RANGING 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. WE'LL KEEP THE MODERATE TO MAJOR
HEATRISK THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH EXTREME RISK OUT IN THE BRUSH COUNTRY.
BUT COME THIS WEEKEND, WE ARE FORECAST TO SEE A BIGGER EXPANSION OF
THIS EXTREME RISK ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. WHILE THE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY ISSUANCE
AT BAY FOR NOW, A DRIER TREND MAY PROMPT THE NEED FOR HEAT HEADLINES
IN THE LATTER-HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
SEABREEZE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ENOUGH TO JUST KEEP KVCT UNDER VCSH THROUGH 21Z. SOME THIS MORNING'S
HI-RES MODELS HAVE WANTED TO THROW SOME LATE-AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
STORMS NEAR KCOT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW, SO KEEPING MENTION
OF THAT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. FROM 08Z, ADDED IN VCSH FOR KVCT AS
STORMS START MOVING IN FROM THE GULF AND THEN HAVING A PREVAILING
RAINFALL FROM 12Z WITH PROB30 THROUGH 18Z FOR LIGHT TSRA, BRINGING
DOWN TO MVFR CONDITIONS. AT KCRP, VCSH WERE ADDED IN FROM 12Z, BUT
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TO
INCLUDE A PREVAILING PRECIP LINE. SO OPTED FOR A PROB30 GROUP
THROUGH 18Z. BEYOND THE TAF CYCLE, WE'LL HAVE TO CONSIDER
PROB30/PREVAILING GROUPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WILL
INCREASE TO GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY. FLOW INCREASES TO A GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH
OCCASIONALLY FRESH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET, INCREASING A FOOT THIS WEEKEND. THERE
WILL BE LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES DAILY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO NEGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WORK WEEK AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY STAYS
ABOVE 30 PERCENT. DAILY LOW RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SEABREEZE WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GENERALLY SUSTAINED BETWEEN 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CREEP BACK
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BRIEFLY TO 25-
30 PERCENT OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND WINDS INCREASING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 95 78 96 / 10 30 10 20
VICTORIA 77 100 76 99 / 20 60 20 40
LAREDO 79 103 78 103 / 0 10 10 10
ALICE 76 100 75 101 / 10 20 10 20
ROCKPORT 81 93 80 93 / 30 50 20 30
COTULLA 77 102 77 101 / 0 10 0 10
KINGSVILLE 77 98 76 99 / 10 30 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 82 91 81 91 / 20 30 10 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...AE/82
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