969
FXUS64 KCRP 091117
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
617 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
- MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY EXTREME RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK WITH AN INCREASED EXTREME RISK THIS WEEKEND.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN LOW TO
VERY LOW CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER FRIDAY-MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
A MID LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
S TX BY WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, MAINLY ALONG THE DAILY SEA BREEZE. WITH THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE WEAKEST CAPPING INVERSION EXPECTED ACROSS
THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS, PROBABILITIES WILL BE HIGHEST UP TO 60%
WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES SOUTH AND WEST. THE LOWEST CHANCE WILL BE
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. RAINFALL TOTALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.5 INCH, BUT WITH
PWATS OF 2.0-2.3 INCHES, A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE 1-2
INCHES. RAIN CHANCES ARE PROGGED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS S TX.
WITH THE RIDGE COMES HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HEAT INDICES. AN
EXTREME RISK OF HEAT RELATED IMPACTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF S
TX BY THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH, HEAT INDICES UP TO 113 MAY OCCUR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED WITH SHORT
DURATION, THUS HEAT ADVISORIES ARE LESS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED.
HOWEVER, BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE DURATION OF HEAT INDICES
OF 110+ ACROSS A LARGER AREA MAY WARRANT DAILY HEAT ADVISORIES,
POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THERE'S A 60% CHANCE OF STORMS NEAR VCT,
30% ACROSS CRP/ALI THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE (BF 2-3) SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY, BECOMING GENTLE TO MODERATE BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN OCCASIONAL FRESH (BF 5) BREEZE SOUTH OF PORT
ARANSAS IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. SEAS 1-2 FEET WILL INCREASE TO
2-4 FEET THIS WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO NEGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THROUGH THURSDAY AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY STAYS ABOVE 30 PERCENT
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON RH
VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 25% AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO
25 MPH. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, THEN DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 94 78 96 78 / 30 10 20 0
VICTORIA 98 75 98 75 / 60 20 50 10
LAREDO 103 78 102 79 / 10 10 0 10
ALICE 99 74 100 75 / 30 0 10 0
ROCKPORT 93 80 93 81 / 50 20 40 10
COTULLA 102 77 101 77 / 0 0 10 0
KINGSVILLE 97 76 99 77 / 30 10 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 90 81 91 82 / 30 10 20 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...BF/80
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