538
FXUS64 KCRP 091845
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
145 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
- MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY EXTREME RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK WITH AN INCREASED EXTREME RISK THIS WEEKEND.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN LOW TO
VERY LOW CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER FRIDAY-MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE MORNING
AND THEN AGAIN WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE ON THURSDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SO FAR WITH TODAY'S PRECIP HAS GENERALLY REMAINED UNDER
0.5 INCH WITH 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCATIONS SEEING MULTIPLE
SHOWERS/STORMS AND ANY STRONGER ONES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A MID LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
S TX TODAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, MAINLY ALONG THE DAILY SEA BREEZE. WITH
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE WEAKEST CAPPING INVERSION EXPECTED
ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS, PROBABILITIES WILL BE HIGHEST UP
TO 60% WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES SOUTH AND WEST. THE LOWEST CHANCE
WILL BE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH
THROUGH FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.5 INCH,
BUT WITH PWATS OF 2.0-2.3 INCHES, A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY
PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES. RAIN CHANCES ARE PROGGED TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS S TX.
WITH THE RIDGE COMES HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HEAT INDICES. AN
EXTREME RISK OF HEAT RELATED IMPACTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF S
TX BY THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH, HEAT INDICES UP TO 113 MAY OCCUR THURSDAY,
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED WITH SHORT DURATION, THUS HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE LESS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED. HOWEVER, BY FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND THE DURATION OF HEAT INDICES OF 110+ ACROSS A
LARGER AREA MAY WARRANT DAILY HEAT ADVISORIES, POSSIBLY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
SEABREEZE STORMS WILL BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT SHOULD RETURN TO VFR THEREAFTER. MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST (KCRP) AND UP INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS (KVCT) AND AS
SUCH PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THOSE TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE (BF 2-3) SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY, BECOMING GENTLE TO MODERATE BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN OCCASIONAL FRESH (BF 5) BREEZE SOUTH OF PORT
ARANSAS IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. SEAS 1-2 FEET WILL INCREASE TO
2-4 FEET THIS WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 78 96 79 97 / 10 20 0 10
VICTORIA 75 98 76 100 / 30 40 10 30
LAREDO 79 103 80 105 / 20 10 0 0
ALICE 75 100 76 102 / 10 20 10 10
ROCKPORT 80 93 81 93 / 30 40 10 10
COTULLA 77 102 78 103 / 20 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 77 99 77 100 / 0 20 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 81 91 82 91 / 20 20 10 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...AE/82
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