803
FXUS64 KCRP 092302
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
602 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 546 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
- MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY EXTREME RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK WITH AN INCREASED EXTREME RISK THIS WEEKEND.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN LOW TO
VERY LOW CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER FRIDAY-MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE MORNING
AND THEN AGAIN WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE ON THURSDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SO FAR WITH TODAY'S PRECIP HAS GENERALLY REMAINED UNDER
0.5 INCH WITH 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCATIONS SEEING MULTIPLE
SHOWERS/STORMS AND ANY STRONGER ONES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A MID LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
S TX TODAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, MAINLY ALONG THE DAILY SEA BREEZE. WITH
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE WEAKEST CAPPING INVERSION EXPECTED
ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS, PROBABILITIES WILL BE HIGHEST UP
TO 60% WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES SOUTH AND WEST. THE LOWEST CHANCE
WILL BE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH
THROUGH FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.5 INCH,
BUT WITH PWATS OF 2.0-2.3 INCHES, A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY
PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES. RAIN CHANCES ARE PROGGED TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS S TX.
WITH THE RIDGE COMES HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HEAT INDICES. AN
EXTREME RISK OF HEAT RELATED IMPACTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF S
TX BY THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH, HEAT INDICES UP TO 113 MAY OCCUR THURSDAY,
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED WITH SHORT DURATION, THUS HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE LESS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED. HOWEVER, BY FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND THE DURATION OF HEAT INDICES OF 110+ ACROSS A
LARGER AREA MAY WARRANT DAILY HEAT ADVISORIES, POSSIBLY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING WEST TOWARD THE RIO
GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE THIS
EVENING AROUND 02Z. REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST AND UP TOWARD
THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS IS EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, THEN
SPREADING WEST WITH THE SEA BREEZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS TO ADDRESS THE CONVECTION WITH TIMING IN
THE MORNING FOR VCT AND CRP THEN LATER AS THE SEA BREEZE TRAVELS
WEST. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS. OUTSIDE OF
THE CONVECTION, GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PATCHY FOG FROM ALI TO VCT EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING LEADING TO MVFR VSBYS BETWEEN 09-13Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE (BF 2-3) SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY, BECOMING GENTLE TO MODERATE BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN OCCASIONAL FRESH (BF 5) BREEZE SOUTH OF PORT
ARANSAS IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. SEAS 1-2 FEET WILL INCREASE TO
2-4 FEET THIS WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 78 96 79 97 / 10 20 0 10
VICTORIA 75 98 76 100 / 30 40 10 30
LAREDO 79 103 80 105 / 20 10 0 0
ALICE 75 100 76 102 / 10 20 10 10
ROCKPORT 80 93 81 93 / 30 40 10 10
COTULLA 77 102 78 103 / 20 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 77 99 77 100 / 0 20 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 81 91 82 91 / 20 20 10 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...TE/81
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