119
FXUS64 KCRP 101146
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
646 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
- MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY EXTREME RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASED EXTREME RISK ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN LOW TO VERY LOW
CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY-MONDAY ACROSS
THE BRUSH COUNTRY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
WEDNESDAY TURNED OUT TO BE MORE ACTIVE THAN ANTICIPATED, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR
TODAY WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS S TX COMBINED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE. SEVERAL MODELS KEEP THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS WITH VERY LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. THIS IS DUE TO THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING SLIGHTLY
NORTHEASTWARD WITH A STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS AND LEADING TO A MORE SUBSIDENT
ENVIRONMENT. THAT BEING SAID, THE DEEP MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SUBSIDENCE.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.25 INCH, BUT WITH PWATS CONTINUING TO RANGE FROM 2.0-2.3
INCHES, A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES. RAIN CHANCES
ARE PROGGED TO DECREASE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS S TX.
AN EXTREME RISK OF HEAT RELATED IMPACTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF
S TX BY THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH, HEAT INDICES UP TO 113 MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON , IT IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED WITH A SHORT DURATION,
THUS A HEAT ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE DURATION OF HEAT INDICES OF 110+
ACROSS A LARGER AREA MAY WARRANT DAILY HEAT ADVISORIES, POSSIBLY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF PORT
ARANSAS THIS MORNING, WITH CONVECTION FURTHER OFF OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. WE CAN EXPECT THIS SCATTERED SHOWER AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS (VCT) BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
OUTFLOWS DEVELOP CONVECTION CLOSER TO CRP. RAIN CHANCES SHIFT
WESTWARD BUT LOWER ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON, ENOUGH TO
KEEP A PROB30 OVER ALI. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SUSTAINED
10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGER WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY DIRECT THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS. WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY
AS THE SEABREEZE PUSHES THROUGH, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TEND TO
UNDERESTIMATE COVERAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE (BF 2-3) SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH
TODAY, BECOMING GENTLE TO MODERATE BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A FRESH (BF 5) BREEZE SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS IS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOONS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SEAS 1-2 FEET
WILL INCREASE TO 2-4 FEET THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, THEN RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO NEGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THROUGH TODAY AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY STAYS ABOVE 30 PERCENT
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON RH
VALUES OF 25-30% AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF WETTING
RAINS TODAY THEN CHANCES DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 95 79 97 79 / 20 10 10 0
VICTORIA 96 75 98 77 / 50 10 30 0
LAREDO 103 79 104 79 / 10 10 0 0
ALICE 100 76 101 76 / 20 10 10 0
ROCKPORT 92 81 93 82 / 40 10 10 0
COTULLA 102 77 103 78 / 10 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 98 77 99 78 / 20 0 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 91 82 91 83 / 30 10 10 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...EMF/94
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