000
FXUS64 KCRP 101925
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
225 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
- MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY EXTREME RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASED EXTREME RISK ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN LOW TO VERY LOW
CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY-MONDAY ACROSS
THE BRUSH COUNTRY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING BETWEEN RIDGING EAST AND WEST OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW, THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN LOCATED GENERALLY OVER THE WATER, AND WILL KEEP THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES THERE AND UP INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION. WE WILL
SEE A GENERAL LOWERING OF DEEP MOISTURE TOMORROW FROM LEVELS THAT
ARE CURRENTLY WELL ABOVE NORMAL (2.1-2.25"). THE POCKET OF HIGHEST
MOISTURE WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD, BUT REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP
MODERATE RAIN CHANCES IN THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. ELSEWHERE,
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLAY FOR ISOLATED SEA BREEZE
SHOWERS DAILY. BY SUNDAY THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE WESTWARD WHILE
ALSO STARTING TO WEAKEN. AS IT DOES MOVE WESTWARD THOUGH IT COULD
PROVIDE A BIT HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS.
MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK RETURN TO BEING DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH MEANS LIMITED RAIN CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DAILY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 90S ALONG THE COAST TO AROUND 105 IN THE BRUSH
COUNTRY. THESE VALUES ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO BE HIGH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
POTENTIALLY TOPING 110 DAILY. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED
ONE OR BOTH OF THOSE DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
CONVECTION SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN COAST,
AROUND THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AREA. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE TO CONSIDER POTENTIAL FOR ALI YET, BUT WITH RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS DID TAKE THE MENTION OUT OF CRP WITH THE 18Z
UPDATE. THERE REMAINS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AS FAR
INLAND AS LRD AND COT, BUT TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A MODERATE AFTERNOON BREEZE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE (BF 2-3) SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH
TODAY, BECOMING GENTLE TO MODERATE BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A FRESH (BF 5) BREEZE SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS IS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOONS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SEAS 1-2 FEET
WILL INCREASE TO 2-4 FEET THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCES SATURDAY AND NEXT
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 99 80 98 / 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 75 98 77 99 / 20 30 10 20
LAREDO 79 105 79 105 / 10 0 0 10
ALICE 76 102 76 102 / 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 81 94 81 94 / 20 20 10 10
COTULLA 78 104 79 104 / 10 0 10 10
KINGSVILLE 77 100 78 100 / 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 82 90 83 92 / 10 10 10 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...PH/83
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