181
FXUS64 KCRP 102324
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
624 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
- MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY EXTREME RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASED EXTREME RISK ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN LOW TO VERY LOW
CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY-MONDAY ACROSS
THE BRUSH COUNTRY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING BETWEEN RIDGING EAST AND WEST OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW, THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN LOCATED GENERALLY OVER THE WATER, AND WILL KEEP THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES THERE AND UP INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION. WE WILL
SEE A GENERAL LOWERING OF DEEP MOISTURE TOMORROW FROM LEVELS THAT
ARE CURRENTLY WELL ABOVE NORMAL (2.1-2.25"). THE POCKET OF HIGHEST
MOISTURE WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD, BUT REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP
MODERATE RAIN CHANCES IN THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. ELSEWHERE,
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLAY FOR ISOLATED SEA BREEZE
SHOWERS DAILY. BY SUNDAY THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE WESTWARD WHILE
ALSO STARTING TO WEAKEN. AS IT DOES MOVE WESTWARD THOUGH IT COULD
PROVIDE A BIT HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS.
MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK RETURN TO BEING DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH MEANS LIMITED RAIN CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DAILY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 90S ALONG THE COAST TO AROUND 105 IN THE BRUSH
COUNTRY. THESE VALUES ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO BE HIGH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
POTENTIALLY TOPING 110 DAILY. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED
ONE OR BOTH OF THOSE DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY ARE
MOVING WEST AND COULD REACH LRD AND COT OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO
HOURS. ALTHOUGH, CONDITIONS ARE NOT AS CONDUCIVE FARTHER WEST FOR
THE CONVECTION TO HOLD TOGETHER, A PROB30 GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED
FOR COT AND LRD THROUGH 02Z. FRIDAY THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION IS
LOWER ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND, BUT A
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE WILL REMAIN ACROSS VCT. THEREFORE, A PROB30
GROUP HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO THE VCT TAF SITE FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN OTHER S TX TAFS AT
THIS TIME. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION, GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE (BF 2-3) SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH
TODAY, BECOMING GENTLE TO MODERATE BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A FRESH (BF 5) BREEZE SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS IS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOONS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SEAS 1-2 FEET
WILL INCREASE TO 2-4 FEET THIS WEEKEND. MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCES SATURDAY AND NEXT
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 99 80 98 / 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 75 98 77 99 / 20 30 10 20
LAREDO 79 105 79 105 / 10 0 0 10
ALICE 76 102 76 102 / 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 81 94 81 94 / 20 20 10 10
COTULLA 78 104 79 104 / 10 0 10 10
KINGSVILLE 77 100 78 100 / 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 82 90 83 92 / 10 10 10 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...TE/81
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