989
FXUS64 KCRP 110640
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
140 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
- MODERATE TO EXTREME RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM TODAY.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND SATURDAY, THEN INCREASING SUNDAY TO A
MEDIUM CHANCE ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND REMAINS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MONDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE
PLAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
A LOW (15-20%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY, MAINLY THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. LESS
MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MEXICO AND ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE WILL LIMIT CONVECTION TODAY. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
FARTHER EAST SATURDAY LEADING TO VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE BEING NUDGED NORTHWARD AS
AN INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS WEST ACROSS S TX. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
DEEPER MOISTURE TO INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE. THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE. ISOLATED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED ACTIVITY BY MID WEEK.
AN EXTREME RISK OF HEAT RELATED IMPACTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF
S TX TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES UP TO 110-114 ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS A MAJORITY OF S TX THIS AFTERNOON LASTING 4-6 HOURS.
THEREFORE, A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR S TX FROM NOON TO 7
PM. HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE FORECAST, WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS LATER
THIS MORNING WITH LOWER CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE MID-MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AT SUSTAINED 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS,
DIMINISHING NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
A MODERATE (BF 4) ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS, WHILE A FRESH (BF 5) BREEZE IS EXPECTED
SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS ACROSS CORPUS CHRISTI AND BAFFIN BAYS AND OUT
TO 20 NAUTICAL MILES THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 2-4 FEET THIS
WEEKEND. THERE IS A 15-35% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND AGAIN SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, LOW RAIN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED MOST
DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS DO NOT
INCREASE UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN RH VALUES INCREASE. HOWEVER, DUE TO
THE DRYNESS AND THE ERC AT 75-90% PERCENTILE, A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY HIGHER MIN RH VALUES WILL RETURN BY
SUNDAY. THE CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS INCREASES ON SUNDAY, WITH UP TO
A 50% CHANCE ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE LOW MOST DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 98 79 97 79 / 10 0 0 0
VICTORIA 98 77 99 76 / 20 10 0 0
LAREDO 105 79 105 77 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 103 76 102 75 / 10 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 93 81 94 82 / 10 10 0 0
COTULLA 104 78 104 77 / 0 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 101 77 100 77 / 10 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 91 83 92 82 / 10 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ230>234-240>244-246-247-342>344.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR GMZ231-232-250.
DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...EMF/94
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