360
FXUS64 KCRP 112324
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
624 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
- MODERATE TO EXTREME RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM TODAY.
- LOW TO VERY LOW CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY, MAINLY
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
DEEP MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY AS EXPECTED AND HAS ACTUALLY
LEFT US WITH LITTLE TO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. ANY SEA
BREEZE ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED TODAY AS SATELLITE ESTIMATED
PWAT VALUES ARE AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE
REMAINS LOW THROUGH SATURDAY AND ONLY A NOTCH BETTER FOR SUNDAY -
THIS IS A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY WHEN GUIDANCE HAD SUGGESTED MORE OF
A MOISTURE PUSH COMING INTO THE REGION. HAVE ONLY SILENT 10 POPS
WITH THE SEA BREEZE FOR SUNDAY. BY MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE IS FULLY IN
CONTROL, THUS POPS REMAIN QUITE LOW. MOISTURE DOES INCREASE THOUGH,
SO AN ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWER/STORM IS POSSIBLE. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR MORE THAN A LOW CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF MOISTURE
COMES IN AND A SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND AT THE SAME TIME. AT THIS
TIME A MODERATE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT THAT TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX AS RIDGING BUILDS. HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE
110 WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN ESPECIALLY EAST ON SATURDAY, THUS ANOTHER
HEAT ADVISORY IS LIKELY. WE'LL REMAIN BORDERLINE ON HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THIS, COMBINED WITH LOW RH
VALUES OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER THAT REGION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR VSBY DUE TO PATCHY FOG AT
VCT, BUT TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, THEN
INCREASING OUT OF THE SE LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS 23-29 KNOTS EXPECTED. LRD AND COT WILL SEE THE STRONGER
WINDS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
A MODERATE (BF 4) ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS, WHILE A FRESH (BF 5) BREEZE IS EXPECTED
SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS ACROSS CORPUS CHRISTI AND BAFFIN BAYS AND OUT
TO 20 NAUTICAL MILES THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 2-4 FEET THIS
WEEKEND. THERE IS A 15-35% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND AGAIN SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, LOW RAIN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED MOST
DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 80 98 80 96 / 0 10 10 10
VICTORIA 77 100 77 100 / 0 10 10 20
LAREDO 80 106 79 104 / 0 10 10 0
ALICE 76 103 77 101 / 0 10 10 20
ROCKPORT 81 94 82 94 / 0 10 10 10
COTULLA 79 105 78 104 / 0 10 10 0
KINGSVILLE 78 101 78 99 / 0 10 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 83 92 83 91 / 0 10 10 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ230>234-240>244-
246-247-342>344.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ231-232-
250.
DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...TE/81
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