036
FXUS64 KCRP 120646
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
146 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
- MODERATE TO EXTREME RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM TODAY.
- LOW TO VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN
INCREASING A MEDIUM CHANCE ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS BY MID
WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND REMAINS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MONDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS, BRUSH
COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE THE HEAT. HEAT
INDICES UP TO 114 ARE FORECAST ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS, A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON TO 6 PM FOR MOST OF
S TX. A FEW PLACES MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED 115, BUT MOST PLACES WILL
REMAIN BELOW 115. MAJOR TO EXTREME RISK OF HEAT RELATED IMPACTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT
TIMES.
LESS MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND
WEST TX WILL LEAD TO VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES TODAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE BEING NUDGED
NORTHWARD AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS WEST ACROSS S TX. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE SEA BREEZE. ISOLATED SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED ACTIVITY BY MID TO LATE WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN VARYING ON
WHICH DAY HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN, BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE
SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY MAY SEE MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN
CHANCES IN RESPONSE TO A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WATERS
COMBINED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS STAY SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING SUSTAINED 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
30 KNOTS OVER CRP. LOWER RAIN CHANCES TODAY, NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE AT ANY TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
A FRESH (BF 5) BREEZE IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS ACROSS
CORPUS CHRISTI AND BAFFIN BAYS AND OUT TO 20 NAUTICAL MILES THIS
AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, A MODERATE (BF 4) ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOW RAIN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 25% ACROSS
THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS, BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS DO NOT INCREASE UNTIL THIS EVENING ACROSS
THESE AREAS AT THE SAME TIME RH VALUES INCREASE. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE
DRYNESS AND THE ERC AT 75-90% PERCENTILE, A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CHANCE
OF WETTING RAINS RETURNS MONDAY, WITH UP TO A 40% CHANCE ACROSS THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 97 80 96 80 / 10 0 10 0
VICTORIA 100 77 99 77 / 10 10 10 0
LAREDO 106 79 104 78 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 103 77 101 76 / 10 0 10 0
ROCKPORT 94 82 94 82 / 10 0 20 0
COTULLA 105 78 103 77 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 101 78 99 77 / 0 0 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 92 83 91 83 / 0 0 20 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ230>234-240>247-342>344-346.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR GMZ231-232-250.
DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...EMF/94
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