401
FXUS64 KCRP 122310
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
610 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
- MODERATE TO EXTREME RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM TODAY.
- LOW TO VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN
INCREASING TO A MEDIUM CHANCE ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS BY MID
WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND REMAINS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MONDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS, BRUSH
COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE. MAIN CONCERN
CONTINUES TO BE HEAT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH RIDGING BUILDING MORE
OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST TO AROUND 105-107 WEST.
THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY THOUGH, AS DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHEST OVER THE
EAST, WITH SUBSTANTIAL MIXING INLAND DECREASING HUMIDITY. NO REAL
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE MAXT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. AS MOISTURE INCREASES BY MID-WEEK, WE COULD DROP A
DEGREE OR TWO, BUT WE'LL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
IN TERMS OF RAINFALL, FOR MOST OF THE AREA RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY
LOW (BELOW 20%) FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS DOES
HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES AT TIMES (20-30%) WHERE THE HIGHER
(THOUGH STILL NOT MUCH TO GET EXCITED ABOUT) PWAT VALUES RESIDE. BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A PLUME OF MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE CURRENT POPS MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH
END JUST BASED ON RECENT PATTERNS, BUT SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY EAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALI AND VCT, BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE VERY LOW AND WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS RELAX OVERNIGHT THEN RESTRENGTHEN MID
TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ONCE AGAIN BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
A FRESH (BF 5) SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH
OF PORT ARANSAS, BUT SHOULD BE A BIT WEAKER TOMORROW, WITH A MAINLY
MODERATE (BF 4) BREEZE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY MID-WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 80 97 80 97 / 0 10 10 10
VICTORIA 77 101 77 100 / 0 20 20 30
LAREDO 79 105 79 105 / 10 0 0 0
ALICE 77 102 76 102 / 0 10 0 10
ROCKPORT 82 94 81 94 / 0 20 20 20
COTULLA 78 105 77 104 / 10 0 10 0
KINGSVILLE 78 100 78 100 / 0 10 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 83 93 83 93 / 0 20 10 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ231-232-
250.
DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...TE/81
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