735
FXUS64 KCRP 130527
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1227 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
- MAJOR TO EXTREME RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM TODAY.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN INCREASING
TO A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID
WEEK, MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS, BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
HEAT REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HEAT INDICES UP
TO 114 ARE FORECAST ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THUS, A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON TO 7 PM FOR MOST OF S TX.
MAJOR TO EXTREME RISK OF HEAT RELATED IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES.
BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX
TEMPS, BUT STILL RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BEING
NUDGED NORTHWARD AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHWEST ACROSS S TX.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE SEA BREEZE WITH A 15-30%
OF CONVECTION. A FEW MAY EVEN REACH THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BE OVER THE TX COASTAL WATERS LEADING TO HIGHER POPS (25-
50%) OVER THE GULF WATERS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. MODELS
INDICATE THE RIDGE SHIFTS BACK ACROSS S TX TUESDAY, DECREASING THE
RAIN CHANCES.
BY MID WEEK, WE COULD SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND LACK OF
RAIN. MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
BEGINNING MID WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF WATERS AND A SHORT WAVE TRACKING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. HIGHEST CHANCES (30-65% ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF S TX) ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WHEN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH 2.1-2.4 INCH PWATS
ADVECTS ACROSS S TX. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH THE GFS INDICATING MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO S TX AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER S TX, WHILE THE CANADIAN AND
ECMWF SHOW THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTING OVER MEXICO ALLOWING FOR
DEEP MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER S TX. FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW
TO MEDIUM CHANCE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
ONE OTHER CONCERN TO BE MONITORED NEXT WEEK WILL BE HIGHER THAN
NORMAL TIDES AND/OR AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK. MODELS SHOW A
LONG EASTERLY FETCH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS BY
MID WEEK WHICH MAY HELP PUSH WATER FARTHER UP THE BEACHES. AT THIS
TIME, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THERE'S A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP
OVER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY,
NOTED BY THE TEMPOS AT ALI/LRD/COT BETWEEN 09-15Z. WINDS PICK UP
AGAIN AROUND 15Z AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH
SUSTAINED 15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. VERY LOW
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS DURING THE DAY, BUT NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
A FRESH (BF 5) BREEZE IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS ACROSS
CORPUS CHRISTI AND BAFFIN BAYS AND OUT TO 20 NAUTICAL MILES THIS
AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE BAYS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, A GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY, THEN MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED
MID WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 30% THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS RH VALUES RISE. THUS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TODAY. THE ERC IS AT THE 75-90% PERCENTILE, AND ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS WILL BE LOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THEN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 96 80 96 80 / 20 0 10 0
VICTORIA 99 77 99 77 / 30 10 30 0
LAREDO 104 78 104 78 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 100 77 100 76 / 10 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 94 81 94 82 / 30 10 10 0
COTULLA 104 77 104 77 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 98 78 98 77 / 10 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 91 83 91 83 / 20 0 10 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ230>234-240>247-342>344-346-347.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...EMF/94
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page