378
FXUS64 KCRP 131822
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
122 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
- MAJOR TO EXTREME RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM TODAY.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES MONDAY, THEN INCREASING TO A MEDIUM CHANCE
THURSDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK,
MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS, BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
DEEP MOISTURE IS INCREASING WELL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
SATELLITE TPW VALUES NEARING 2" ALONG THE COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH UNDER THE RIDGE COULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP DEVELOP A
FEW SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS. MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE SOME TOMORROW, BUT COULD STILL
SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS, MAINLY IN THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. AFTER
THAT, BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE LEVELS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCE. ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES
IN FOR THURSDAY WITH MODERATE RAIN CHANCES THAT DAY. MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND AND COULD ACTUALLY GIVE US A BIT OF A BREAK
IN MINIMUM TEMPS. MORE ON THAT IN A MOMENT.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SUMMER HEAT THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WHAT HAS
BEEN THE WARMEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD FOR ALL THREE OF OUR CLIMATE
SITES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. FOR REFERENCE, NORMAL HIGHS ARE AS FOLLOWS: CRP AND
VCT 90-91, LRD 93-94. AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY HIGHS WEST WILL BE
ABOVE 100 WITH MID AND UPPER 90S EAST. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH
THIS INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER THURSDAY WILL DO, BUT WE
SHOULD DROP AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES OFF FOR A DAY OR TWO - THAT
SAID, THE INCREASED MOISTURE WOULD KEEP IT FEELING JUST AS HOT! HEAT
INDEX VALUES THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL TOP OUT AROUND 110, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORIES DAILY. THE DRIER
AIR FRIDAY/SATURDAY LIKELY BRINGS HIGHS BACK ABOVE 100 WEST. AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THE DRIER AIR LATE IN THE WEEK SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A BIT MORE EFFICIENT COOLING, ALLOWING LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER 70S. UNTIL THEN THOUGH, UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
VFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS AT INLAND TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON - TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS, HOWEVER VCT IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE VICINITY
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING AT MOST SITES, BUT EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
MAINLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
WITH, POTENTIALLY WEAKENING TO GENTLE TO MODERATE FOR THE WEEKEND.
AFTER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASED CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 80 98 80 98 / 10 10 10 0
VICTORIA 77 100 77 98 / 20 20 10 10
LAREDO 79 104 78 105 / 0 10 0 0
ALICE 76 101 76 102 / 0 10 0 0
ROCKPORT 81 94 81 94 / 10 20 10 0
COTULLA 77 104 77 104 / 10 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 78 99 77 100 / 0 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 83 95 83 93 / 10 10 10 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ230>234-240>247-
342>344-346-347.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...PH/83
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