483
FXUS64 KCRP 140508
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1208 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
- MAJOR TO EXTREME RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF WEEK, THEN
LOWERING TO A MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM TODAY.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN INCREASING
TO A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID
WEEK, MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS, BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. HEAT INDICES UP TO 114
ARE FORECAST ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THUS, A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON TO 7 PM FOR MOST OF S TX. MAJOR
TO EXTREME RISK OF HEAT RELATED IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES. BY
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPS
DUE TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, BUT STILL RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL.
SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE MID LEVELS AND PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 2 INCHES TODAY WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW TO VERY LOW ACROSS
MOST OF S TX, EXCEPT FOR THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS WHERE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BRING A 20-50
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN NOT RULE OUT A
ROGUE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AS THIS HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALMOST DAILY.
MODELS INDICATE THAT PWATS ARE EVEN LOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS ALL OF S
TX WHICH WILL RESULT IN VIRTUALLY LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCES. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTING BACK
ACROSS S TX WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY.
PWATS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AS MUCH AS 2.4 INCHES, WHICH WILL
BE CONDUCIVE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CREATING LOCALIZED FLOODING
PROBLEMS, ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING. HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF S TX WITH
POPS FROM 35-60% AND <35% CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE.
RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND ARE STILL NOT CLEAR CUT
DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL OUTPUTS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO S TX AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES
DIRECTLY OVER S TX, WHILE THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF SHOW THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH SHIFTING FARTHER WEST, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE
TO REMAIN OVER S TX. FOR NOW, THE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE ACROSS ALL OF
S TX ON FRIDAY LOOKS REASONABLE. LOW RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ONE OTHER CONCERN TO BE MONITORED LATER IN THE WEEK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES AND/OR AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.
MODELS SHOW A LONG EASTERLY FETCH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF WATERS BY MID WEEK WHICH MAY HELP PUSH WATER FARTHER UP THE
BEACHES. AT THIS TIME, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE, LEADING TO PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 09-15Z. WINDS WILL BE CALMER OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS, HAVE MAINTAINED THE MVFR VSBY MENTION OVER VCT FROM
09-13Z. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BY THIS AFTERNOON,
BECOMING SUSTAINED 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KNOTS.
WE'LL HAVE A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION AT ANY TERMINAL AT THIS TIME,
MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
A FRESH (BF 5) BREEZE IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS ACROSS
CORPUS CHRISTI AND BAFFIN BAYS AND OUT TO 20 NAUTICAL MILES ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE
BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE, A GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) ONSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY GENERALLY NORTH OF ROCKPORT AND OUT 60 NAUTICAL
MILES. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO MEDIUM TO HIGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30% THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS RH VALUES RISE. THUS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TODAY. LOWER RH VALUES TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO HIGHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THE ERC IS AT
THE 75-90% PERCENTILE, AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS
WILL BE LOW TO VERY LOW TODAY AND TUESDAY, THEN INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE
EXPECTED THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 96 79 97 79 / 10 0 0 10
VICTORIA 99 77 101 76 / 40 10 0 0
LAREDO 104 78 105 77 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 101 76 102 75 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 93 82 94 81 / 20 0 0 10
COTULLA 103 77 104 75 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 99 77 100 76 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 91 83 91 82 / 10 0 0 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ230>234-240>247-342>344-346-347.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...EMF/94
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