757
FXUS64 KCRP 142253
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
553 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 544 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
- MAJOR TO EXTREME RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
THEN LOWERING TO A MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM TODAY.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN INCREASING TO A
MEDIUM CHANCE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
TUESDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY, BUT MAINLY JUST A STRAY
SHOWER/STORM. SATELLITE TRENDS NOT SHOWING A LOW INLAND WITH THE SEA
BREEZE TODAY, BUT RECENT HISTORY MAKES IT HARD TO SAY THERE'S NO
CHANCE. THUS HAVE A 20% CHANCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE FOR THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE HOT
TEMPS SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND A FEW SITES HAVE REACHED ADVY
CRITERIA AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON.
OVERALL PICTURE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE REMAINS. THE RIDGE
CENTER IS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A FEW SHORT WAVES ROTATING EAST TO
WEST UNDER THE RIDGE. FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MOISTURE LEVELS
LOOK TOO LOW TO WARRANT MORE THAN LOW POPS (MAINLY TUESDAY).
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE THOUGH THURSDAY - TOPPING OVER 2",
EVEN 2.25" ALONG THE COAST WHICH IS PUSHING POPS UP IN SOME MODELS,
INCLUDING THE NBM. FEEL THOUGH THAT SOME GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO
EXCITED, AND HAVE CAPPED POPS OVER LAND CLOSER TO 50%. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT NOT A WIDESPREAD RAIN OUT DAY.
ALSO, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPRESSIVE.
PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 0.1" ARE PRETTY GOOD ALONG THE COAST,
BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT GREATER THAN 0.5", THEY ARE NEAR ZERO. EVEN A
LITTLE RAIN IS BETTER THAN NONE, THOUGH!
HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY, BUT DEEP MOISTURE
DECREASES QUITE A BIT AND AS A RESULT OF MIXING, SURFACE RH WILL
ALSO DECREASE MORE EFFICIENTLY THAN TODAY, SO WE'RE ONLY BORDERLINE
ON A HEAT ADVISORY TOMORROW. IT MAY BE NECESSARY, BUT CONFIDENCE
ISN'T THERE AT THE MOMENT. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A BIT OF RELIEF FROM THE UPPER 90S AND TEMPS
OVER 100, BUT UNLESS SHOWERS/STORMS PERSIST OVER AN AREA ON
THURSDAY, WOULD STILL EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE A BIT LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN. HIGH TEMPS RETURN TO ABOVE 100 WEST AND IN THE MID
AND UPPER 90S EAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE EVENING.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR ANY
SITE, BUT DID INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR LRD, COT AND VCT DUE TO
MODEL GUIDANCE AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING
WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AND LASTED MORE THAN A
COUPLE OF HOURS. GUSTY S-SE WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. WINDS RELAX OVERNIGHT THEN RESTRENGTHEN
MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS S TX WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
A FRESH (BF 5) BREEZE IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS ACROSS
CORPUS CHRISTI AND BAFFIN BAYS AND OUT TO 20 NAUTICAL MILES ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE
BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE, A GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) ONSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS TODAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO MEDIUM TO
HIGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN DECREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 98 79 97 / 0 0 0 20
VICTORIA 77 99 76 100 / 10 0 10 30
LAREDO 78 105 77 104 / 10 0 0 10
ALICE 76 102 75 100 / 0 0 0 20
ROCKPORT 82 94 81 94 / 0 0 10 20
COTULLA 77 104 76 103 / 10 0 0 10
KINGSVILLE 77 100 76 99 / 0 0 0 20
NAVY CORPUS 82 93 82 93 / 0 0 0 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ230>234-240>247-
342>344-346-347.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...TE/81
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