010
FXUS64 KCRP 150509
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1209 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
- MAJOR TO EXTREME RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY, THEN LOWERING TO A MODERATE TO
MAJOR RISK THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES TODAY, THEN INCREASING TO A MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCE BY THURSDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
THE HEAT CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN, BUT HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 110 TODAY. THIS IS DUE TO DRIER CONDITIONS
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS/RH VALUES. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY EXCEED
110 BRIEFLY. WE MAY REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY, BUT IT
WILL BE BORDERLINE. HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LESS LIKELY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES/COOLER TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE MAJOR TO
EXTREME RISK OF HEAT RELATED IMPACTS TODAY TO LOWER TO A MODERATE TO
MAJOR RISK THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE MID LEVELS AND PWATS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 2 INCHES TODAY WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW TO VERY LOW ACROSS
MOST OF S TX. ALTHOUGH A ROGUE SHOWER ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT.
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTING
ACROSS S TX BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AS MUCH AS 2.4 INCHES,
WHICH WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CREATING LOCALIZED
FLOODING PROBLEMS, ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING. HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF S TX
WITH POPS FROM 35-60% AND <35% CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE.
RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DROP OFF FRIDAY TO A 20-35% CHANCE THEN 5-20%
OVER THE WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR A 10-20% CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE DAILY SEA BREEZE.
MODELS SHOW A LONG EASTERLY FETCH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF WATERS THIS WEEK WHICH MAY HELP PUSH WATER FARTHER UP THE
BEACHES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
NORMAL TIDES AND/OR AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK. AT THIS TIME,
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVER SOUTH
TEXAS, HOWEVER WE'RE ALREADY SEEING STREAKS OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER
THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS TO BRUSH COUNTRY, NEAR ALI. WE'LL CARRY
TEMPOS FOR EACH SITE FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. LIGHTER WINDS
OVER VCT MAY INDUCE MVFR VSBY AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL BY
15Z WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KNOTS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
A FRESH (BF 5) BREEZE IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS ACROSS
CORPUS CHRISTI AND BAFFIN BAYS AND OUT TO 20 NAUTICAL MILES ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE
BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE, A GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) ONSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. VERY LOW RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO MEDIUM ON WEDNESDAY
AND HIGH CHANCES BY THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE FRIDAY
WITH LOW TO VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20-30% THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THUS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ERC REMAINS AT THE 75-90%
PERCENTILE, AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS WILL BE VERY
LOW TODAY, THEN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE EXPECTED THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 97 79 96 79 / 0 0 10 20
VICTORIA 101 77 100 77 / 10 0 30 20
LAREDO 105 77 103 76 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 102 75 100 76 / 10 0 10 10
ROCKPORT 93 81 94 81 / 10 10 20 40
COTULLA 104 75 102 77 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 100 77 98 77 / 0 0 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 91 82 91 82 / 0 0 10 40
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...EMF/94
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