699
FXUS64 KCRP 081026
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
526 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 526 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
- COASTAL FLOODING RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIKELY LATER THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND DUE TO HURRICANE ISAIAS
- GENERALLY DRY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SEABREEZE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THAT IS DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING AND A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS S TX. WE WILL LIKELY STILL SEE SOME
ACTIVITY OVER THE TEXAS WATERS DUE TO NOW HURRICANE ISAIAS AS IT
MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST AWAY FROM US. WE WILL SEE DRIER CONDITION
ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS S TX. A
MID/UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK/DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
TX WHICH WOULD PROVIDE UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MEXICO ON THU/FRI. THOUGH WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AT THIS TIME FOR
CONVECTION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO CREEP INTO THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AND WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY.
THE MAIN CONCERN HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL BRING TO SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE
AN INCREASED RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING, HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AND
SEAS BUILDING UP TO 9-10 FEET. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS ISAIAS PROGRESS ITS WAY THROUGH THE
GULF. MODELS HAVE CAME INTO AGREEMENT THAT SWELL PERIODS WILL
INCREASE TO 9-10 SECONDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 9-10 FEET OR HIGHER DUE TO A STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST
FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ENERGY TO
PUSH THE WATER UP TO THE DUNES. IF THE WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 25-30
KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 12 FEET, THEN TIDE LEVELS AT HIGH
TIDE COULD REACH 3 FEET MSL AND A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WOULD BE
NEEDED. HOWEVER, CHANCES REMAIN LOW THAT THIS WILL OCCUR, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF CYCLE WILL BE LIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10-15
KT AFTER 18Z, THEN BECOMING MORE E'LY AS WINDS WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.
LOW END 10-15% CHANCE FOR SEABREEZE STORMS, BUT TOO LOW OF A
CHANCE TO INCLUDE AS TEMPO/PROB30.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) LEVELS
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO FRESH AND STRONG
LEVELS TODAY, ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE. PERIODS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
AROUND 9-10 SECONDS WITH SEAS AROUND 9-10 FT BY FRIDAY
EVENING/EARLY SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT
THIS MORNING LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY THOUGH A POTENTIAL EXTENSION
IS LIKELY. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND. KEEP UP TO
DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
STILL NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND WEAK WINDS.
RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW TO VERY LOW, MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL BEND
THROUGH THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 90 72 90 71 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 96 68 95 68 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 92 73 93 70 / 10 10 0 0
ALICE 92 69 92 68 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 90 73 90 73 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 94 72 94 69 / 0 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 90 70 90 69 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 87 76 87 75 / 10 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR TXZ345-442-443-
447.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ270-275.
DISCUSSION...NP/92
AVIATION...AE/82
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