300
FXUS64 KCRP 091126
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
626 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
- COASTAL FLOODING AND RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO HURRICANE ISAIAS
- GENERALLY DRY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
- MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF HEAT RELATED IMPACTS RETURN NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
THE FORECAST HAS CONTINUED TO REMAIN ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW
FORECASTS. WE EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IN SOUTH TEXAS OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THAT IS DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING AND A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIRMASS THAT IS PARKED OVER THE REGION. WE WILL LIKELY STILL
SEE SOME ACTIVITY OVER THE TEXAS WATERS DUE TO HURRICANE ISAIAS AS
IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST AWAY FROM US. WE WILL SEE THOSE DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS S TX. SOME RESIDUAL ENERGY FROM HURRICANE SIMON OVER IN THE
PACIFIC WILL LOOK TO CREEP INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTH TEXAS ON THE RIGHT FLANK OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. AHEAD OF
THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR DEEP
MOISTURE POOLING. THE PRESENCE OF THESE TO FACTORS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO A LOW CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE REGION MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.
THE MAIN CONCERN HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL BRING TO SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE
AN INCREASED RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING, HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AND
SEAS BUILDING UP TO POTENTIALLY 9-10 FEET (CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO
HIGH IN THIS OCCURRING OVER THE GULF WATERS GIVEN THE HIGHER
PERIODS AND NORTHEAST WINDS). A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT
SWELL PERIODS WILL INCREASE TO 9-10 SECONDS BY THIS AFTER
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH THE INCREASED SEAS. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT ENERGY TO PUSH THE WATER UP TO THE DUNES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT HAZE AT VCT THIS MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES TODAY. MVFR VIS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN AT
VCT TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) LEVELS
CONTINUE WITH PERIODS OF FRESH AND STRONG LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE. PERIODS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD AROUND 9-10
SECONDS WITH SEAS AROUND 9-10 FT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
STILL NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND WEAK WINDS.
RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW TO VERY LOW, MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL BEND
THROUGH THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 91 70 90 74 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 95 66 95 69 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 95 69 95 74 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 93 67 93 70 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 91 73 89 76 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 95 67 95 72 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 91 68 90 72 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 88 75 87 79 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ245-342>347-
442-443-447.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ345-442-443-
447.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ250-255-270-
275.
DISCUSSION...NP/92
AVIATION...PH/83
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