441
FXUS64 KCRP 101727
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1227 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
- COASTAL FLOODING AND RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
DUE TO HURRICANE ISAIAS
- GENERALLY DRY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
CONTINUED DRIER CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AND THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK IN SOUTH TEXAS OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME RESIDUAL ENERGY
FROM HURRICANE SIMON OVER IN THE PACIFIC WILL LOOK TO CREEP INTO THE
REGION MONDAY WITH SOUTH TEXAS ON THE RIGHT FLANK OF THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. AHEAD OF THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
ALLOWING FOR DEEP MOISTURE POOLING BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING. THE
PRESENCE OF THESE TO FACTORS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A LOW CHANCE FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE REGION MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.
HURRICANE ISAIAS MADE LANDFALL A FEW HOURS AGO, THEREFORE THE
IMPACTS TO SOUTH TEXAS WILL BEGIN TO WANE. THE THREATS WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO WANE WITH SEAS SLOWLY RETURNING TO NORMALCY. HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL LAST AT LEAST UNTIL MIDMORNING TODAY, THOUGH COASTAL
FLOODING AND RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY HOLD UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THEN AS WELL AS
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO HIGHER SWELL
PERIODS AROUND 9-10 SECONDS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ACCOMPANY VFR CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING MAY SEE
SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS
AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE (BF 3-4) LEVELS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. SATURDAY EVENING FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN TO MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE ONCE AGAIN (BF 4-5) AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. PERIODS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 9-10 SECONDS WITH SEAS BEFORE SUBSIDING AROUND 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THEREAFTER.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND WEAK WINDS.
RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW, MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL BEND THROUGH THE WEEK
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 74 90 77 91 / 0 0 0 20
VICTORIA 68 94 73 94 / 0 0 0 30
LAREDO 74 95 76 97 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 70 92 74 94 / 0 0 0 20
ROCKPORT 77 89 78 90 / 0 0 10 20
COTULLA 72 95 75 97 / 0 0 0 10
KINGSVILLE 72 90 75 92 / 0 0 0 20
NAVY CORPUS 79 88 81 89 / 0 0 10 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ245-342>347-
442-443-447.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ345-442-443-
447.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NP/92
AVIATION...BF/80
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