039
FXUS64 KCRP 110002
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
702 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
- COASTAL FLOODING RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIKELY LATER THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS
- GENERALLY DRY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN BY EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK AND
AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WEAK MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, MAINTAINING GENERALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TOMORROW.
HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING SUNDAY MAY SUPPORT
A FEW SHOWERS TO KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.
AS A SURGE OF DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS EARLY IN THE WEEK, GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2.2-2.3 INCHES, APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. DESPITE
THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS
RATHER LIMITED AS WEAK MIDLEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION.
LITTLE APPRECIABLE MIDLEVEL PVA IS INDICATED BY THE GFS, WHILE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CONFINED TO THE SEA BREEZE
WITH A POTENTIAL BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE. NEVERTHELESS, THE MOISTURE-
RICH ENVIRONMENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A LOW (20-35%) CHANCE
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. ALTHOUGH, COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED BY THE LACK OF STRONGER
FORCING.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH LATE MONDAY WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
CONSIDERABLY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF A POTENTIALLY
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE GFS DEPICTS A SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWARD SURGE OF
COLDER AIR, BRINGING A FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS NEXT
WEEKEND, WHILE THE EURO KEEPS THE BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
GEFS TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES LEND SOME SUPPORT TO A COOLER PATTERN
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS, ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE
COLDER AIR WILL PENETRATE. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW. FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN A MORE CONSERVATIVE TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST WHILE MONITORING SUBSEQUENT MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE TRENDS FOR GREATER CONSISTENCY.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT AT
LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TIDES REMAIN ELEVATED, BUT THIS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE SEAS AS P-ETSS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WATER LEVELS COULD REMAIN AT OR NEAR 2.0 FEET MSL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AROUND THE COT TERMINAL,
THOUGH WITH CONFIDENCE REMAINING LOW, THE DECISION WAS MADE TO
KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAFS. WINDS WILL GO RELATIVELY LIGHT THIS
EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AROUND MIDMORNING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
THE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE (BF 3-4) WILL VEER
BACK ONSHORE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK BECOMING FRESH (BF-5) AT TIMES. AFTER WHICH, FLOW WILL
STEADILY INCREASE AND BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING FRONT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
IN REGARDS TO THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT AND TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT
GENERALLY EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WATERS NEXT WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND, MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 30-40% WILL
STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY LEAD TO SOME
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AGAIN
MID- TO LATE IN THE WEEK AS A STRONG COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY
APPROACHES THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 75 90 77 92 / 0 0 10 20
VICTORIA 69 94 73 95 / 0 0 10 30
LAREDO 74 95 76 98 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 70 92 73 95 / 0 10 10 20
ROCKPORT 77 88 79 91 / 0 0 20 20
COTULLA 71 96 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 72 90 75 93 / 0 10 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 79 87 81 89 / 0 0 20 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ245-342>347-
442-443-447.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ345-442-443-
447.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BF/80
AVIATION...NP/92
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