357
FXUS64 KCRP 111734
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1234 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY DURING
HIGH TIDE CYCLES
- GENERALLY DRY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
RAIN RETURNING TO THE REGION BY MONDAY.
- POTENTIAL COLD FRONT MAY SWEEP THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS AT THE
CONCLUSION OF THE WEEK BRINGING POTENTIAL IMPACTS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
CONTINUED DRIER CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AND THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK IN SOUTH TEXAS OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME RESIDUAL ENERGY
FROM HURRICANE SIMON OVER IN THE PACIFIC WILL LOOK TO RIDE AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MONDAY WITH SOUTH TEXAS ON THE RIGHT
FLANK OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THANKS TO ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR DEEP MOISTURE POOLING
(PWATS 2.0"+ IN THE REGION. THE PRESENCE OF THESE TO FACTORS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A LOW CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE REGION
MONDAY. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY NOT BE WIDESPREAD AS GUIDANCE IS
PORTRAYING ACTIVITY BEING CONFINED TO THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS AND
VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
AFTER MONDAY, WE WILL BACK TO EXPECTING DAILY SEABREEZE CONVECTION
WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
THURSDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST IS REMAINING TRICKY, SOME
GUIDANCE BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE REGION (CANADIAN
AND THE GFS). WHEREAS THE ECMWF, PORTRAYS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SOLUTION
INTO SOUTH TEXAS WHERE THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND THE BRUNT OF THE
FRONT IS LOCATED TO THE EAST TOWARDS HGX'S CWA. GEFS TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES MAINTAINS THE COLDER SOLUTION IN SOUTH TEXAS WITH THE
LATEST RUN. WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE REMAINING CONFIDENCE
UNFORTUNATELY WILL REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME, THOUGH WE CONTINUE TO
MONITORING THE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
OTHERWISE, TODAY WE LIKELY STILL SEE CONTINUED MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IN THE REGION THROUGH POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY. P-ETTS
MAINTAINS WATER LEVELS AROUND 2.0 FT MSL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
POTENTIALLY LINGERING FURTHER INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
THIS AFTERNOON VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20KT. INCREASING MOISTURE TODAY WILL
INCREASE LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT MAINLY WEST. ALSO
INCLUDED MFVR VSBYS FOR ALI. TOMORROW MORNING VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR VCT. OTHERWISE, SIMILAR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
ONSHORE GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE (BF 3-4) LEVELS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BECOMING FRESH AT TIMES (BF 5). PERIODS ARE
EXPECTED CONTINUE SUBSIDING BELOW 9-10 SECOND AND SHOULD BE WELL
BELOW BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. LATER IN THE WEEK, FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME NORTHEASTERLY ONCE AGAIN AND STRENGTHEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
POTENTIAL FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THOUGH CURRENTLY TIMING AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT
REMAIN IN QUESTION. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITOR THE TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW FORECAST. BE SURE TO CHECK BACK FOR FUTURE UPDATES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
IN SOUTH TEXAS, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THIS WEEKEND. MINIMUM RH
VALUES AROUND 30-40% WILL STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
DUE TO DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. LOW RAIN
CHANCES MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AGAIN MID- TO LATE IN THE WEEK AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT POTENTIALLY APPROACHES THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 90 77 92 78 / 0 20 30 0
VICTORIA 93 73 95 75 / 0 10 50 0
LAREDO 95 75 98 77 / 0 10 0 0
ALICE 92 74 95 76 / 0 10 20 0
ROCKPORT 88 79 90 80 / 0 30 40 0
COTULLA 96 74 97 77 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 90 75 93 77 / 0 10 20 0
NAVY CORPUS 87 80 89 82 / 0 30 30 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ245-342>347-
442-443-447.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NP/92
AVIATION...BF/80
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