496
FXUS64 KCRP 111908
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
208 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY DURING
HIGH TIDE CYCLES
- GENERALLY DRY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
RETURNING TO THE REGION BY MONDAY
- A COLD FRONT MAY SWEEP THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS AT THE CONCLUSION OF
THE WEEK BRINGING COOLER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS WITH
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. P-ETSS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS COINCIDING WITH HIGHER
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN MINOR INUNDATION OF
BEACHES AND BEACH ROADS, PARTICULARLY AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS MIDLEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE, A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND
PASSING LOW-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SUPPORT PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES.
PWATS THIS MORNING AROUND 1.25" AT CRP ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, PEAKING AROUND 2.3 - 2.4". DESPITE
THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, LIMITED LARGE-SCALE FORCING
SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL COVERAGE RELATIVELY LOW. HOWEVER, WEAK LOW-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
LIFT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS, WHERE MODERATE PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST. OTHERWISE,
GENERALLY LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH SOUTH
TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEK. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD
BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE FRONT REACHING THE FORECAST AREA,
ALTHOUGH NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN ITS TIMING AND STRENGTH. THE
GFS FAVORS A FRIDAY FROPA, WHILE THE EURO DELAYS THE BOUNDARY UNTIL
SATURDAY. THESE DIFFERENCES INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
ONSET AND MAGNITUDE OF POST-FRONTAL COOLING, ALONG WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY WINDS. HIGHER-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE NAM, SHOULD HELP REFINE THESE DETAILS AS
THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. GIVEN THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS
LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE NBM AT THIS TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S TO AROUND
100 DEGREES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK BEFORE FALLING INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD FALL INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS INLAND AREAS, WITH MILDER CONDITIONS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THESE TEMPERATURES REMAIN SUBJECT TO
ADJUSTMENT AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT.
IN ADDITION TO COOLER TEMPERATURES, THE FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS, POTENTIALLY APPROACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE AND MAGNITUDE
OF THESE WINDS REMAINS LIMITED, BUT THE POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
THIS AFTERNOON VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20KT. INCREASING MOISTURE TODAY WILL
INCREASE LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT MAINLY WEST. ALSO
INCLUDED MFVR VSBYS FOR ALI. TOMORROW MORNING VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR VCT. OTHERWISE, SIMILAR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH (BF 4-5) ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH MODERATE RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING AS
MOISTURE INCREASES. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS, WITH BRIEF NEAR-GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
ELEVATED SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED, WHILE RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH IF THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE 90S TO
AROUND 100 DEGREES. HOWEVER, INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN MINIMUM RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH, ALTHOUGH
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND,
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER NORTHERLY
WINDS. DESPITE THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT,
RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITY, PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES, AND LOW ERC
PERCENTILES SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 92 79 93 / 30 20 10 10
VICTORIA 73 94 76 96 / 0 40 10 20
LAREDO 76 98 78 100 / 10 0 0 0
ALICE 74 95 76 96 / 20 10 0 10
ROCKPORT 79 91 81 91 / 20 40 10 10
COTULLA 75 98 77 100 / 10 10 10 0
KINGSVILLE 75 93 77 94 / 20 10 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 81 89 82 89 / 30 30 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ245-342>347-
442-443-447.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BF/80
AVIATION...BF/80
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