525
FXUS64 KCRP 120624
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
124 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
NIGHT, AND COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- LOW CHANCES OF RAIN TODAY; PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK
- A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS AT THE CONCLUSION OF
THE WEEK BRINGING POTENTIAL IMPACTS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
SOME RESIDUAL ENERGY FROM HURRICANE SIMON OVER IN THE PACIFIC WILL
LOOK TO RIDE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TODAY WITH SOUTH
TEXAS ON THE RIGHT FLANK OF THE AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE. THANKS TO
ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS WE HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO SEE DEEP
MOISTURE POOLING INTO THE AREA (PWATS 2.0"+ IN THE REGION. THE
PRESENCE OF THESE TO FACTORS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A LOW CHANCE FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE REGION MONDAY. FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK
THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT FOR THE ACTIVITY TO BE BRIEF IF IT CAN GET
GOING. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY NOT BE WIDESPREAD AS GUIDANCE IS
PORTRAYING ACTIVITY BEING CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS
AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. WE HAVE OBSERVED SOME SHOWERS IN THE GULF
WATERS IN BROS CWA ALREADY TRACKING THIS WAY.
AFTER TODAY, WE WILL BACK TO EXPECTING DAILY SEABREEZE CONVECTION
PAIRED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THAT WILL LEAD TO LOW
CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEK. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE UNTIL THURSDAY. GUIDANCE (GFS,CANADIAN,ECMWF) HAS CAME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE
REGION AT THE CONCLUSION OF THE WEEK. THE TIMING WILL APPEARS TO BE
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT STILL
REMAINS A BIT IN QUESTION. WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE
REMAINING CONFIDENCE UNFORTUNATELY WILL REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME,
THOUGH WE CONTINUE TO MONITORING THE TRENDS. THINGS WILL BECOME MORE
CLEAR WHEN WE ARE IN RANGE OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS.
OTHERWISE, TODAY WE LIKELY STILL SEE CONTINUED MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IN THE REGION. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POSSIBILITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WE SHOULD BEGIN A
DOWNTREND, THOUGH AN EXTENSION WILL REMAIN IN PLAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
AS MOISTURE INCREASES, LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO BECOME MORE PROMINENT.
WHILE WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR PRIMARILY VFR CIGS TONIGHT, PERIODS
OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AROUND SUNRISE. BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
CRP AND VCT TOMORROW, BUT CHANCES ARE BELOW ABOUT 20% SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
GENERALLY MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH (BF 4-5) ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH MODERATE RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUING AS MOISTURE INCREASES. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS, WITH BRIEF NEAR-
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. ELEVATED SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED, WHILE RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH IF THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE IN THE REGION AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
WILL LIMIT CONCERNS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH
TEXAS THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIALLY
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS. DESPITE THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT, RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITY, PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES,
AND LOW ERC PERCENTILES SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 93 79 93 79 / 10 10 10 0
VICTORIA 95 76 96 76 / 40 10 20 10
LAREDO 98 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 95 76 97 76 / 10 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 91 80 91 80 / 30 10 10 0
COTULLA 98 77 100 77 / 10 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 93 77 94 77 / 10 10 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 89 82 89 82 / 20 10 10 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ245-342>347-
442-443-447.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NP/92
AVIATION...PH/83
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