251
FXUS64 KCRP 121925
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
225 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT, AND
COULD LINGER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
- LOW CHANCES OF RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK
- A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS AT THE CONCLUSION OF
THE WEEK BRINGING POTENTIAL IMPACTS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK EACH AFTERNOON
DUE TO SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS. WE ARE PLEASANTLY EXPECTING OUR FIRST
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEK. NBM CURRENTLY HAS HIGHS IN THE 80S
THIS WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S, HOWEVER, SOME MODELS ARE
SHOWING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING
THAT WE WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. ANOTHER
ASPECT OF THE FORECAST THAT WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED IS THE WIND
POTENTIAL. AS OF THIS MOMENT, STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED THAT WILL
LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BUT REMAINING BELOW GALE.
SOME PROBABILISTIC MODELS THOUGH ARE SHOWING A LOW CHANCE FOR GALE
FORCE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES HAVE
DECREASED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S THROUGH MID-
WEEK BEFORE THE COLD FRONT. HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL RANGE FROM 106-111 DEGREES ALONG WITH A MODERATE TO MAJOR
RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS. PLEASE REMEMBER TO CONTINUE TO
PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY: TAKE BREAKS WHEN OUTSIDE, DRINK PLENTY OF
WATER, AND LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF CYCLE. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE COT AND LRD WHO CAN SEE BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS
BETWEEN 06-15Z. PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 22Z FOR VCT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BRIEFLY DECREASING TO UNDER 12 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
GENERALLY MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH (BF 4-5) ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH MODERATE RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUING AS MOISTURE INCREASES. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS, WITH BRIEF NEAR-
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. ELEVATED SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED, WHILE RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH IF THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE IN THE REGION AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
WILL LIMIT CONCERNS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH
TEXAS THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIALLY
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS. DESPITE THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT, RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITY, PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES,
AND LOW ERC PERCENTILES SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 93 79 91 / 0 10 0 10
VICTORIA 76 95 77 94 / 10 20 10 20
LAREDO 77 100 78 99 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 76 96 77 95 / 0 0 0 10
ROCKPORT 81 91 81 90 / 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 77 100 78 99 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 77 94 77 92 / 0 10 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 82 90 82 88 / 0 10 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ245-342>347-
442-443-447.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JCP/84
AVIATION...JCP/84
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