539
FXUS64 KCRP 131104
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
604 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY DURING
HIGH TIDE CYCLES
- LOW CHANCES OF RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK
- A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS AT THE CONCLUSION OF
THE WEEK BRINGING POTENTIAL IMPACTS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE WEEK OUTSIDE OF
DAILY SEABREEZE CONVECTION PAIRED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING
THROUGH THAT WILL LEAD TO LOW CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THURSDAY. GUIDANCE
(GFS,CANADIAN,ECMWF) HAS REMAINED IN AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION AT THE CONCLUSION OF THE WEEK.
THE TIMING WILL APPEARS TO BE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ONE
OF THE LIKELY IMPACTS THAT GUIDANCE STILL IS HINTING AT IS WINDY
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE EXPECTED WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR GALE
CONDITIONS. THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT STILL REMAINS A BIT IN
QUESTION. WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE REMAINING CONFIDENCE
UNFORTUNATELY WILL REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME, THOUGH WE CONTINUE TO
MONITORING THE TRENDS. THINGS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR WHEN WE ARE IN
RANGE OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS. ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES HAVE
DECREASED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE, TODAY WE LIKELY STILL SEE CONTINUED MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IN THE REGION. STILL EXPECTING A CONTINUED DOWNTREND,
THOUGH NOTICED SOME SPOTS WHERE TIDES REACHED HIGHER THAN NORMAL.
DECISION WAS MADE TO EXTEND THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER EXTENSION MAYBE POSSIBLE AS PE-TSS STILL
MAINTAINS TIDES AROUND 1.8 MSL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WEBCAMS
AND GUIDANCE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE FOR OUR EASTERN SITES,
BUT LOW CHANCES WILL KEEP THIS OUT OF THE TAFS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH (BF 4-5) ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH RELATIVELY LOW RAIN CHANCES. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO FRESH TO
STRONG LEVELS, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR GALE CONDITIONS. ELEVATED SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED,
WHILE RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WILL NOT EXPECT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.
ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE IN THE REGION AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL
LIMIT CONCERNS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS
THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS. DESPITE THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT, RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITY, PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES, AND LOW
ERC PERCENTILES SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 93 79 91 75 / 0 0 10 0
VICTORIA 95 76 93 70 / 20 0 30 0
LAREDO 99 77 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 96 76 94 73 / 10 0 20 0
ROCKPORT 91 80 89 77 / 10 10 10 0
COTULLA 99 77 99 74 / 0 0 10 0
KINGSVILLE 94 77 92 74 / 0 0 20 0
NAVY CORPUS 89 81 88 80 / 10 10 10 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ245-
342>347-442-443-447.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NP/92
AVIATION...LS/77
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