989
FXUS64 KCRP 131821
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
121 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY DURING
HIGH TIDE CYCLES
- LOW CHANCE OF RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK
- A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS BRINGING POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LOW (10-30%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG THE DAILY SEABREEZE. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT LOOKS LIKE OUR FIRST REAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, LOWERING OUR
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THIS WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
HAS BEGUN TO COME IN JUST A LITTLE EARLIER WITH THIS FRONT, BUT
HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW TO MEDIUM
(20-60%), MAINLY ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH
THIS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH, THOUGH IT LOOKS
LIKE WE WILL REMAIN UNDER WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW. AS
MENTIONED BEFORE, THINGS WILL BECOME CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER IN
TIME AND ARE ABLE TO SEE THINGS ON THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT
AS HIGH WATERS IN THE BAYS AND INTERCOASTAL WATERS TRY TO MAKE THEIR
WAY BACK TO THE GULF. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS. CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL
MAINTAIN THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER EXTENSION MAYBE POSSIBLE WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING TIDES
AROUND 1.8 MSL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WEBCAMS AND GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE FOR OUR EASTERN SITES, BUT LOW CHANCES
WILL KEEP THIS OUT OF THE TAFS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH (BF 4-5) ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH RELATIVELY LOW RAIN CHANCES. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO FRESH TO
STRONG (BF 5-6), WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
PERIODS OF NEAR GALE TO GALE (BF 7-8) CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED, WHILE RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK
AS ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS LIMIT CONCERNS.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY
SATURDAY, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.
FORTUNATELY, MOISTURE AND PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WITH LOW ERC VALUES
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 91 76 90 / 0 10 0 0
VICTORIA 77 93 71 93 / 10 40 0 0
LAREDO 77 99 76 96 / 0 0 0 10
ALICE 76 94 73 93 / 0 10 0 0
ROCKPORT 80 90 77 89 / 10 10 0 0
COTULLA 77 99 74 95 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 77 92 74 91 / 0 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 82 88 80 87 / 10 10 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ245-
342>347-442-443-447.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LS/77
AVIATION...LS/77
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