365
FXUS64 KCRP 141108
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
608 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
- A COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BRING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS TO SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND.
- GENERALLY DRY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AND TONIGHT.
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
- GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND DEEP MOISTURE
(PWATS 2.0-2.2 INCHES) WILL RESULT IN A MORE ACTIVE SEA BREEZE
TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE (30-40%) WILL BE ALONG THE COASTLINE UP TO
THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. LOW TO VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REGAINS IT'S HOLD OVER S TX
AND MAINTAINS THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
A COLD FRONT FRIDAY WILL BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH HIGHS
THIS WEEKEND AROUND 5-10 DEGREES COOLER AND LOWS AROUND 10-15
DEGREES COOLER. THE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO A 20-30%
WITH UP TO 40% ALONG THE COASTLINE. THE HIGHEST CHANCE UP TO 80%
WILL BE OVER THE GULF WATERS WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINING SUB-SEVERE.
WINDS ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
THE MAIN COLD FRONT, THEN STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY.
THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
PLEASANT WITH WINDS RELAXING ALONG WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS.
AS FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, WILL LET THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
EXPIRE AT 1 AM BASED ON LOWER OBSERVED TIDE LEVELS AND CAMERAS ALONG
THE ISLANDS SHOWING THAT THE WATER IS NOT QUITE UP TO THE DUNES.
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ONCE AGAIN. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 10-12 FEET AND
SWELL PERIODS INCREASE TO 8-9 SECONDS. ALL OF WHICH ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR PUSHING WATER UP TO THE DUNES DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. IF THE
WINDS AND SEAS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN EXPECTED, A COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING MAY BE WARRANTED WITH WATER UP TO 3 FEET ABOVE MSL DURING
HIGH TIDE. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THAT WE WILL SEE TIDES
THAT HIGH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
MVFR CIGS ARE VERY PATCHY ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, CURRENTLY
NOT AFFECTING ANY TAF SITES, BUT VERY CLOSE TO ALI. STILL COULD
SEE EXPANSION OF THESE CLOUDS TOWARD WESTERN SITES OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN TONIGHT OF SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS LATE IN THE NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LOW RAIN CHANCES. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG (BF 5-6) BY FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PERIODS OF
NEAR GALE TO GALE (BF 7-8) CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG
COLD FRONT FRIDAY WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND BRING A STRONG
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND IN IT'S WAKE. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RH VALUES MAY DROP BELOW
30% ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RELAX, BECOMING LIGHT. THEREFORE, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 91 75 90 72 / 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 93 70 92 68 / 30 10 0 10
LAREDO 99 75 95 72 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 94 72 92 70 / 10 10 0 10
ROCKPORT 90 77 89 73 / 20 0 10 20
COTULLA 99 72 95 71 / 0 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 92 72 90 70 / 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 88 79 87 77 / 10 0 10 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...PH/83
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