759
FXUS64 KCRP 141906
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
206 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
- A COLD FRONT BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BRING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS TO SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND.
- GENERALLY DRY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AND TONIGHT.
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
- GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
RIDGING CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTH TEXAS, CONTINUING THE SEASONALLY-WARM
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH HIGHER PWAT VALUES OF 2+ INCHES,
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COAST AND INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IS
FILTERING INTO THE WESTERN GULF THURSDAY BEHIND THAT HIGH PRESSURE
WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA, KEEPING THE REGION
WARM.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO COOL OFF FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTH TEXAS, ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT 20-30% CHANCE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MORE INLAND BEFORE THE FRONT, WITH AT LEAST A
60% CHANCE ALONG THE COASTLINE AND OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL PICK UP
FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL REMAIN OUT OF NORTHEAST WITH 20-25 KNOTS
WELL INTO FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE COASTAL BEND, BUT WILL LIGHTEN UP
FOR THE BRUSH COUNTRY. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE AROUND 10-20
DEGREES COOLER AND LOWS ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER, WITH LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THESE CONDITONS WILL NOT
LAST FOR TOO LONG AS TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASING EARLY INTO NEXT
WEEK.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN GALE CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THESE INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE THE WAVE ENERGY DURING THAT TIME PERIOD, POTENTIALLY
LEADING TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS LOW, THE INCREASE SURF WILL LIKELY LEAD TO NOT
IDEAL DRIVING CONDITIONS ON THE BEACH. ACCORDINGLY, RIP CURRENT RISK
WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
VFR CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS FOR LRD AND COT DUE TO CIGS NEAR 1.5K
FEET AFTER 6Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CHANGE OUR WIND DIRECTION TO MORE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BY FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS
WILL START INCREASING TO ABOVE 25 KNOTS AND THE GUSTS WILL BE AS
HIGH AS 30-35 KNOTS. SEAS INCREASE TO 8-12 FT FRIDAY EVENING WITH
10-14 FEET SEAS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THESE GALE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING (60-80%).
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG
COLD FRONT FRIDAY WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND BRING A STRONG
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND IN IT'S WAKE. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RH VALUES MAY DROP BELOW
30% ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RELAX, BECOMING LIGHT. THEREFORE, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 75 90 72 84 / 10 10 10 20
VICTORIA 70 92 68 81 / 0 10 10 20
LAREDO 75 95 72 84 / 0 0 10 30
ALICE 72 92 70 84 / 10 0 10 10
ROCKPORT 77 89 73 85 / 10 10 20 20
COTULLA 73 95 70 81 / 0 0 10 10
KINGSVILLE 73 90 71 84 / 10 0 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 79 87 76 83 / 10 10 20 30
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...AE/82
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