865
FXUS64 KCRP 150624
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
124 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
- A COLD FRONT FRIDAY WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO
SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND.
- GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
- A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS,
POSSIBLY FARTHER INLAND, FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
- VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.
- MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
DURING TIME OF HIGH TIDE. COASTAL FLOODING COULD CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS POSSIBLE BRIEFLY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY HOT DAY TODAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING
RAIN FREE DUE TO RIDGING ALOFT. ALTHOUGH, A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO
CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
THE MAIN WEATHER EVENT WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH S
TX ON FRIDAY, FINALLY BRINGING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. THE COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE FRIDAY NIGHT. A
PLEASANT WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR S TX WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. MODELS
INDICATE A WIND SHIFT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN BLAST
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY'S MAX TEMPERATURE
MAY OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF S TX WILL HAVE A 10-25% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS, BUT THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE UP TO 50% ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. THE HIGHEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE GULF WATERS WHERE THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE WINDY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS S TX
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED, AT LEAST
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE BAYS AND
COASTAL WATERS WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE COASTAL FLOODING. THE STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD TO 8-13 FEET, POSSIBLY UP TO 14 FEET. SWELL PERIODS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 8-9 SECONDS. THE COMBINATION WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR PUSHING WATER UP TO THE DUNES DURING TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY, AND MAYBE INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER, IF THE WINDS AND
SEAS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN EXPECTED, A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MAY
BE WARRANTED WITH WATER UP TO 3 FEET ABOVE MSL DURING HIGH TIDE. AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THAT WE WILL SEE TIDES THAT HIGH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
STRATUS CLOUD DECKS ARE AROUND TONIGHT, IMPACTING INLAND LOCATIONS
AT THIS TIME. COASTAL SITES LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR, BUT COULD
BRIEFLY SEE MVFR AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL SITES BY
MID-MORING. NOT AS MUCH WIND TODAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
A MODERATE (BF 4) SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH
RELATIVELY LOW RAIN CHANCES. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
INCREASING TO NEAR GALE (BF 7) WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE (BF 8) BY
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL RELAX FROM NEARSHORE TO OFFSHORE
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BECOMING A MODERATE NORTHEAST BREEZE BY
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE 30-70% AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN
DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY. HOWEVER,
A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING A STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RH
VALUES DROP TO CRITICAL LEVELS WHILE WINDS ARE STILL STRONG, LEADING
TO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, WHICH MAY WARRANT A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT OR RED FLAG WARNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT THIS WILL OCCUR. RH VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING DECREASING THE THREAT. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. THEREFORE,
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 90 72 82 58 / 10 10 20 0
VICTORIA 92 68 80 54 / 10 10 20 0
LAREDO 95 71 82 58 / 0 0 40 0
ALICE 92 70 82 56 / 0 10 20 0
ROCKPORT 89 73 84 59 / 20 10 10 0
COTULLA 95 69 79 55 / 0 30 20 0
KINGSVILLE 90 70 83 57 / 10 10 20 0
NAVY CORPUS 87 76 82 61 / 10 10 20 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.
DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...PH/83
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