394
FXUS65 KCYS 192330
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
430 PM MST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY, THOUGH NOT AS WINDY AS IT WAS YESTERDAY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF I-25 AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.
- DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER WILL DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT
OCCURRING FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
- SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES
ON MONDAY AND FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 430 PM MST THU DEC 19 2024
AS THE SUN STARTS TO GO DOWN WE ARE STARTING TO SEE THE WIND
GUST DROP OFF. THERE ARE SOME HIGH BASED CLOUDS MOVING EAST FROM
IDAHO THAT WILL BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
TOMORROWS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE
MORNING AND LASTING INTO THE EVENING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST THU DEC 19 2024
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING LOTS OF CLEAR AIR
TURBULENCE AND MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WIND SPEEDS CONTINUING TO
REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE TODAY WITH EVEN A FEW WIND GUSTS UP TO
60 MPH IN A COUPLE PLACES INCLUDING CHEYENNE. THESE WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD SLACKEN SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TRIES TO NUDGE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. HOWEVER, THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRYING TO SLIDE DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL MOST LIKELY INDUCE PRESSURE FALLS IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOMORROW WHICH WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL
HEIGHT/PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TOMORROW.
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR SOME MORE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
WIND PRONE AREAS TOMORROW. THE LOCAL WIND MODEL IS DEPICTING
THIS POTENTIAL QUITE WELL OVER BORDEAUX ALONG WITH ARLINGTON AND
I-80 SUMMIT. THIS WIND EVENT SHOULD NOT BE AS PROLONGED, BUT IT
MAY CREATE ENOUGH IMPACTS TO TRAVEL. THEREFORE, WE WENT AHEAD
AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS. THESE WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY ON FRIDAY EVENING.
SATURDAY COULD BE OUR PICK OF THE WEEK AS FOR LIGHTER WIND
SPEEDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES, DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. UNFORTUNATELY, WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. WE WILL MOST LIKELY SEE WIND SPEEDS START CRANKING UP
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST THU DEC 19 2024
CURRENT MODELS AND MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE ARE PERSISTING WITH A
STRONG SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG WIND EVENT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE WINDS STARTING TO BACK DOWN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GFS OMEGA FIELDS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS STRONGER DOWNWARD FLOW ON THE
LEEWARD SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOOKING AT MODEL GUIDANCE FOR WINDS
BETWEEN 850 TO 700MBS THERE IS AN AREA OF WIND SPEEDS OF 50 TO 70KTS
CUTTING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF WYOMING AND EXTENDING
INTO THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA.
TUESDAY THROUGH THROUGH THE REST OF WEEK,
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY, MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TO GIVE US THE CHANCE FOR SNOW.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING FOR A
COLDER AIRMASS TO FILTER DOWN OVER THE ROCKIES LEADING TO MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. IT'S UNCERTAIN ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE OVER OUR REGION AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SO ITS
UNCERTAIN IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO LIFT TO PRODUCE A
MEASURABLE AMOUNT OF SNOW.
PAST CHRISTMAS, MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POLAR JET SETTING UP
THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND STABILIZING ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW IT UNFOLDS AS IT MAY BE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
FOR US.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 430 PM MST THU DEC 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AROUND 16Z A
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING WIND GUST BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KTS TO THE TAF
SITES FRIDAY. JUST OUTSIDE THE TAF WINDOW AT 01Z SATURDAY WILL
THOSE WIND GUST START TO DROP.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
WYZ106-110-116.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...REC
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...MM
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