064  
FXUS65 KCYS 031747  
AFDCYS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY  
1047 AM MST MON FEB 3 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- HIGH WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS  
MORNING WITH GUSTS OVER 60 MPH.  
 
- SPLIT TEMPERATURES FROM A SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO  
START THE WEEK WITH CHILLY, SUB-FREEZING HIGHS FOR  
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, WHILE THE REST OF THE LOWER  
ELEVATIONS SEE SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MILD  
AFTERNOON HIGHS.  
 
- WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO STRONG WINDS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK  
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 351 AM MST MON FEB 3 2025  
 
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY DRAGGING SOUTHWARD  
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A WIDE SWATH OF TEMPERATURES  
ACROSS THE AREA AS CHADRON IS IN THE LOW 20'S, CHEYENNE IS STILL IN  
THE 50'S AND RAWLINS IS IN THE 40'S. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO CAUSE A  
WIND SHIFT FROM A WESTERN FLOW TO A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE  
FRONT. DESPITE THE 700MB WINDS STILL MAINTAIN SPEEDS BETWEEN 55 TO  
65KTS PAST 18Z. THE FRONTAL SHIFT WILL CREATE A SORT OF DISCONNECT  
FROM THOSE HIGHER WINDS AND EFFECTIVELY NOT ALLOWING THOSE HIGHER  
WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SO THE DECISION WAS MADE TO ALLOW  
THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AT THEIR SLOTTED TIMES AND NOT BE  
EXTENDED ON THIS SHIFT. HOWEVER, THE AREA ESPECIALLY IN THE WIND  
PRONES WILL SEE ELEVATED GUSTY WINDS JUST NOT WARNING CRITERIA  
WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXTREMELY TRICKY BECAUSE OF THIS FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY AND THE FILTERING OF COOLER AIR BEHIND IT. THE HREF SHOWS A  
VERY TIGHT GRADIENT FOR THE PROBABILITY OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE  
BEING LESS THAN 32F FOR TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT IS 100 PERCENT  
CHANCE AND IN FRONT OF THE FRONT IS 0 PERCENT. ALONG A LINE FROM  
CASPER TO SCOTTSBLUFF, THERE IS A GRADIENT FROM 70 TO 40 PERCENT  
CHANCE OF THE TEMPERATURES BEING BELOW 32F RIGHT WHERE THE HI-RES  
ENSEMBLES THINK HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL SHIFT. TO ADD MORE  
PERSPECTIVE SIDNEY, NE HAS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF HAVING A HIGH  
TEMPERATURE OF LESS THAN 32 DEGREES TODAY WITH CHEYENNE, RAWLINS,  
AND LARAMIE HAVING A ZERO CHANCE. NO MODEL REALLY HAD A GREAT HANDLE  
ON THIS FRONT SO A BLEND OF BCCONSHORT AND NBM90 WAS USED. THAT WAY  
THE DOWNSLOPING ON TOWNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS SOMEWHAT CAPTURED  
AND SOME RESEMBLANCE OF THE FRONT WAS ALSO CAPTURED. AS I'M  
CURRENTLY FIGHTING FOR MY LIFE TRYING TO GET ACCURATE TEMPERATURES  
FOR TODAY, THE LIKELY SCENARIO THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL BE THE TEMPS  
BEING RAISED TO TRY TO CAPTURE THE DOWNSLOPE AND THE DIURNAL TREND  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE COOLER TEMPS AND DIURNAL TREND BEHIND THE  
FRONT. LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY, THE FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH  
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES INTO OUR REGION. THERE WILL BE A  
PLUME OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE ADVECTED INTO OUR REGION. HOWEVER,  
ONLY THE SIERRA MADRES AND SNOWY MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME VERY  
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO UPSLOPE. OTHERWISE EVERYWHERE ELSE LOOKS  
DRY IN THE SHORT TERM.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 351 AM MST MON FEB 3 2025  
 
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF WITH A BANG, WITH HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE ON  
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL  
LEAD TO A SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF MSLP GRADIENTS OVER THE CWA. WINDS  
ALOFT WILL RESPOND, INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 KTS OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF  
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. GOOD SUBSIDENCE OVER THE  
WIND PRONES AREAS ARE LIKELY TO BRING THESE WINDS DOWN TO THE  
SURFACE, WITH IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE ALREADY PINGING THE WIND PRONES WITH  
A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF HIGH WINDS. THIS WILL BE A QUICK HIGH WIND  
EVENT WITH WINDS RELAXING BY THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWING  
WEDNESDAY, EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BREEZY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK DUE TO A 250 MB JET SITTING OVER  
WYOMING.  
 
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WILL GRADUALLY COOL AFTER  
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A WARM, ABOVE AVERAGE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS 700 MB  
TEMPERATURES SIT ABOVE 0C, WHICH IS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR NAEFS  
CLIMATOLOGY. COMBINED WITH WARM, DOWNSLOPING WINDS, TEMPERATURES  
WILL SKYROCKET INTO THE 50S AND MID 60S. AFTER WEDNESDAY,  
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL OFF AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES FALL  
BACK BELOW 0C. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND AS A  
STRONG FRONT MOVES INTO WYOMING.  
 
WHILE UNDER THE CURRENT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN, PRECIPITATION CHANCES  
LOOK FAIRLY LIMITED FOR THE PLAINS AS BETTER MOISTURE REMAINS  
FURTHER NORTH. SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END  
OF THE WORK WEEK THANKS TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND SOME MID-LEVEL  
MOISTURE, WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. A  
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA SATURDAY, BRINGING AMPLE  
MOISTURE WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL  
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
 
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MST MON FEB 3 2025  
 
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN WYOMING  
AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IS RESULTING IN AVIATION WEATHER  
CONCERNS. A LOW STRATUS DECK HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA, CREATING  
IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CEILINGS, PRIMARILY FROM CYS TO CPR AND  
POINTS EAST. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO AFFECTING TERMINALS  
NEAR THE PINE RIDGE (CDR) AND FOG IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE  
(AIA TO SNY). EXPECT ALL THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY WANE AND  
CEILINGS LIFT THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH MOST TERMINALS  
RETURNING TO VFR BY 04/00Z. MEANWHILE, GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND  
THE COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO EAST AND PERHAPS  
SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. WEST OF THE FRONT (RWL TO LAR),  
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT  
AND INTO TOMORROW, WITH PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LIKELY.  
 

 
   
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR WYZ104-109-  
110-113.  
NE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MM  
LONG TERM...SF  
AVIATION...DS  
 
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