940  
FXUS65 KCYS 062239  
AFDCYS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY  
339 PM MST THU MAR 6 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- WINTER STORM IS ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION WITH ACTIVITY  
EXPECTED TO ALSO FILL BACK FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA,  
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DEPARTING THE REGION.  
 
- A RETURN TO MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO START NEXT  
WEEK ALONGSIDE THE RETURN OF WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF  
SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST THU MAR 6 2025  
 
A WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO BRING BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY  
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION, CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE  
DEPARTING. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWS SOME ACTIVITY  
BEGINNING TO REFORM ACROSS THE LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWARD INTO  
THE COLORADO RANGES, WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING BACK SNOWFALL  
TO OUR I-80 CORRIDOR, CONTINUING TO FILL BACK IN THIS EVENING.  
OF NOTE ON THESE CONVECTIVE STYLE BANDS ACROSS THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN, SOME NOTABLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN SEEN THANKS  
TO QUICK AND HEAVY SNOWFALL ALONGSIDE BREEZY WINDS. MESOSCALE  
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND  
7-7.5 C/KM, SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME QUICK NEAR SNOW  
SQUALL LEVELS OF IMPACTS AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES TOWARDS THE I-25  
AND I-80 CORRIDORS. THAT BEING SAID, UPPER AIR PROFILES BECOME  
UNFAVORABLE MOVING FURTHER EASTWARDS ACROSS CHEYENNE AND INTO  
LARAMIE COUNTY, SO IMPACTS MAY BE SUBDUED UNTIL LATER TODAY.  
 
THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE  
OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO, PRECIPITATION  
BANDS WILL FILL BACK IN FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA  
INCLUDING MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS. SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING BOTH  
HIGH RES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A  
STRONGER SWATH FROM SOME FGEN BANDING FOR OUR NORTHERN WYOMING  
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE COUNTIES LEADING TO THESE HEAVIER TOTALS.  
FRIDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WE  
SHOULD SEE SNOW BEGIN DEPARTING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SOME SNOW  
SHOULD BE LINGERING ACROSS THE SIERRA-MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES,  
BUT OUTSIDE OF THIS THE BULK OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION  
ACTIVITY WILL BE GONE. MOVING INTO THE EVENING AND INTO EARLY  
SATURDAY MORNING, SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AND CONDITIONS  
IMPROVING AS WE SEE RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN TO START THE  
WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST THU MAR 6 2025  
 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION.  
 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS  
WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE SPREADS  
FOR MOST AREAS. QUIET AND BENIGN WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE  
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY WILL BE  
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY.  
SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS 700MB  
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY INCREASE ABOVE -8C UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  
HOWEVER, NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY WITH A  
HIGH POTENTIAL FOR A SOLID SNOWPACK FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA,  
AND ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. GEFS AND GEPS  
ENSEMBLE SPREADS ARE THE HIGHEST ON SATURDAY FOR TEMPERATURES DUE TO  
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SNOWPACK. EXPECT THERE TO BE CONSIDERABLE  
SNOWPACK FROM JUST NORTH OF RAWLINS NORTHEAST INTO CONVERSE AND  
NIOBRARA COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLE INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA  
PANHANDLE. THEREFORE, LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY IN THESE  
AREAS AND BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE NBM 10TH  
PERCENTILE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT THE WARMING TREND TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY  
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES EASTWARD INTO THE FRONT  
RANGE. EXPECT 700MB TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER WITH VALUES ABOVE 0C BY  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER AND RETURN TO  
ABOVE AVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.  
FURTHER NORTH, SNOWPACK WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT  
STILL EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS  
TIME OF THE YEAR DUE TO THE HIGHER MARCH SUN-ANGLE.  
 
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S  
AND 60S, WITH EVEN A FEW PLACES AROUND 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR EARLY TO MID  
NEXT WEEK IS WINDY CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY  
STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE WIND PRONE AREAS. ALL MODELS SHOW THE  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FLATTENING OUT BY MONDAY WITH INCREASING  
WINDS ALOFT. KEPT ELEVATED GUSTS, MAINLY FOR THE BORDEAUX AREA  
SINCE IN-HOUSE WIND GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PROBABILITIES AROUND 45  
TO 55 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY  
COOLER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF PACIFIC UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGHS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL  
FRONT RANGE, BRINGING HIGH CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT. ANY  
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG  
THE I-80 CORRIDOR.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MST THU MAR 6 2025  
 
SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA  
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME DRY SLOTTING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING  
TO TEMPORARILY IMPROVED CONDITIONS, MAINLY FOR TERMINALS ALONG  
INTERSTATE 80. A SECOND WAVE OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THIS EVENING  
AND OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS  
THE AREA. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO LOW CIGS AND POOR  
VISIBILITY IN FALLING SNOW. SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH BREEZY  
CONDITIONS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SEVERE VISIBILITY DROPS AT TIMES.  
SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND  
AREA FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
 
   
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR WYZ108.  
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR WYZ101-102.  
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR WYZ103>107-109.  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR WYZ110-116-  
117.  
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST FRIDAY FOR WYZ112.  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST FRIDAY FOR WYZ114.  
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR NEZ002-095.  
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR NEZ003.  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST  
FRIDAY FOR NEZ019>021.  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR NEZ096.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...CG  
LONG TERM...SF  
AVIATION...SF  
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