693
FXUS65 KCYS 070334
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
834 PM MST THU MAR 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER STORM IS ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION WITH ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO ALSO FILL BACK FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA,
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DEPARTING THE REGION.
- A RETURN TO MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO START NEXT
WEEK ALONGSIDE THE RETURN OF WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 832 PM MST THU MAR 6 2025
A FEW CHANGE WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TONIGHT.
DECREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FROM CHEYENNE EASTWARD DUE TO NO
SNOW ONGOING AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY, ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE
GRIDS FOR THE SAME AREA. FOG SHOULD CLEAR OUT AROUND 05Z AS THE
NEXT ROUND OF SNOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. MODIFIED WINDS
SLIGHTLY TO BETTER MATCH ONGOING CONDITIONS. A COUPLE SPSS WERE
ISSUED FOR THE I-80 SUMMIT, FOOTHILLS, AND CENTRAL LARAMIE
COUNTY DUE TO THE ONGOING DENSE FOG AND HEAVY SNOW NEAR BEAR
CREEK. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IF FOG
STICKS AROUND LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST THU MAR 6 2025
A WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO BRING BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION, CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE
DEPARTING. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWS SOME ACTIVITY
BEGINNING TO REFORM ACROSS THE LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWARD INTO
THE COLORADO RANGES, WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING BACK SNOWFALL
TO OUR I-80 CORRIDOR, CONTINUING TO FILL BACK IN THIS EVENING.
OF NOTE ON THESE CONVECTIVE STYLE BANDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, SOME NOTABLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN SEEN THANKS
TO QUICK AND HEAVY SNOWFALL ALONGSIDE BREEZY WINDS. MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND
7-7.5 C/KM, SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME QUICK NEAR SNOW
SQUALL LEVELS OF IMPACTS AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES TOWARDS THE I-25
AND I-80 CORRIDORS. THAT BEING SAID, UPPER AIR PROFILES BECOME
UNFAVORABLE MOVING FURTHER EASTWARDS ACROSS CHEYENNE AND INTO
LARAMIE COUNTY, SO IMPACTS MAY BE SUBDUED UNTIL LATER TODAY.
THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO, PRECIPITATION
BANDS WILL FILL BACK IN FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA
INCLUDING MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS. SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING BOTH
HIGH RES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A
STRONGER SWATH FROM SOME FGEN BANDING FOR OUR NORTHERN WYOMING
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE COUNTIES LEADING TO THESE HEAVIER TOTALS.
FRIDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WE
SHOULD SEE SNOW BEGIN DEPARTING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SOME SNOW
SHOULD BE LINGERING ACROSS THE SIERRA-MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES,
BUT OUTSIDE OF THIS THE BULK OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
ACTIVITY WILL BE GONE. MOVING INTO THE EVENING AND INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AND CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AS WE SEE RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN TO START THE
WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 210 PM MST THU MAR 6 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE SPREADS
FOR MOST AREAS. QUIET AND BENIGN WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY WILL BE
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY.
SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS 700MB
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY INCREASE ABOVE -8C UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
HOWEVER, NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY WITH A
HIGH POTENTIAL FOR A SOLID SNOWPACK FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA,
AND ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. GEFS AND GEPS
ENSEMBLE SPREADS ARE THE HIGHEST ON SATURDAY FOR TEMPERATURES DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SNOWPACK. EXPECT THERE TO BE CONSIDERABLE
SNOWPACK FROM JUST NORTH OF RAWLINS NORTHEAST INTO CONVERSE AND
NIOBRARA COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLE INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. THEREFORE, LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY IN THESE
AREAS AND BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE NBM 10TH
PERCENTILE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT THE WARMING TREND TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES EASTWARD INTO THE FRONT
RANGE. EXPECT 700MB TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER WITH VALUES ABOVE 0C BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER AND RETURN TO
ABOVE AVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
FURTHER NORTH, SNOWPACK WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT
STILL EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR DUE TO THE HIGHER MARCH SUN-ANGLE.
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S, WITH EVEN A FEW PLACES AROUND 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK IS WINDY CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE WIND PRONE AREAS. ALL MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FLATTENING OUT BY MONDAY WITH INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT. KEPT ELEVATED GUSTS, MAINLY FOR THE BORDEAUX AREA
SINCE IN-HOUSE WIND GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PROBABILITIES AROUND 45
TO 55 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF PACIFIC UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
FRONT RANGE, BRINGING HIGH CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT. ANY
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 433 PM MST THU MAR 6 2025
A TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, THEN MOVE TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
WYOMING TAFS...FOR RAWLINS, CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM 2500 TO
5000 FEET, WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO
3 MILES UNTIL 04Z. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OCCURS FROM 04Z TO 12Z,
WHILE WIND GUSTS TO 29 KNOTS OCCUR UNTIL 12Z.
FOR LARAMIE, CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM 2500 TO 5000 FEET WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 2 MILES UNTIL 06Z.
FOR CHEYENNE, CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM 1800 TO 2500 FEET UNTIL
18Z, WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1 TO
2 MILES UNTIL 10Z, THEN CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO 5000 FEET
AFTER 18Z.
NEBRASKA TAFS...FOR CHADRON AND ALLIANCE, CEILINGS WILL RANGE
FROM 700 TO 1500 FEET UNTIL 15Z, WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 TO 3 MILES, THEN CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE TO 3500 FEET AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GUST TO
32 KNOTS UNTIL 08Z.
FOR SCOTTSBLUFF, CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO 1500 FEET THROUGH 15Z,
WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 2 TO
4 MILES, THEN CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO 2500 FEET AFTER
15Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 KNOTS UNTIL 08Z.
FOR SIDNEY, CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO 2500 FEET THROUGH 12Z, WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 2 TO 4 MILES,
THEN CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO 3500 FEET AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL GUST TO 29 KNOTS UNTIL 07Z.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR WYZ108.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR WYZ101-102.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR WYZ103>107-109.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR WYZ110-116-
117.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST FRIDAY FOR WYZ112.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST FRIDAY FOR WYZ114.
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR NEZ002-003-095.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR NEZ019>021-
096.
UPDATE...AM
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...RUBIN
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