838
FXUS65 KCYS 102331
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
531 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EACH
AFTERNOON.
- THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2025
MILD, DRY, AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AREA IS VERY WARM AND VERY DRY. TEMPERATURES
HAVE SURGED INTO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE HIGH PLAINS EXCEPT AREAS
FROM DOUGLAS TO CHADRON WHERE SOME SNOW LINGERS. WE EVEN HAVE A FEW
LOW 70S POPPING UP IN THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 50+ MPH OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. AUTOMATED
OBSERVATIONS AND PUBLIC REPORTS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE WINDS ARE
KICKING UP SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT BLOWING DUST MAINLY IN BOX BUTTE
COUNTY. HOWEVER, VISIBILITY HAS LARGELY BEEN ABOVE 1 MILE, SO AN
ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NECESSARY.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH TODAY IS FLATTENING THE
STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND WILL
BRING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY THEN THROUGH EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY AS OUR HIGH
PLAINS ZONES GET SCRAPED BY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT, EXPECT A COOLER AND MORE HUMID NIGHT ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. A FEW LOCATIONS OF
PATCHY FOG COULD ALSO POP UP TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THE COVERAGE OF
THIS WILL LIKELY BE QUITE LIMITED, IF ANY. THE RIDGE WILL BE QUICK
TO REBOUND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, SO ANOTHER WARM DAY IS
ANTICIPATED DESPITE ENDING UP A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE
PICTURE, BUT THE PROBABLY OF HIGH WINDS IS CURRENTLY FAIRLY LOW (<
30%). WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE OF THE SAME AS THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WEST COAST. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND HIGHS
ABOUT 10-20F ABOVE AVERAGE. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM MAY PUT HIGH WINDS BACK INTO THE PICTURE FOR
CARBON COUNTY TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2025
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROF COMING
FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL INDUCE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ARLINGTON AND WESTERN CARBON COUNTY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, WE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS OVER THAT
REGION WHERE SOME HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL LOOKING VERY DYNAMIC
ESPECIALLY AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW HAS NOT CHANGED A LOT AND IS STILL INDICATING A BOMB
CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER OVER CENTRAL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS
DYNAMIC SYSTEM, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME HINTS OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON
ON FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IS MOISTURE. IF SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE
PINE RIDGE AND CHEYENNE RIDGES WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN
PLACE. AFTER THIS TIMEFRAME, THE CYCLOGENESIS REALLY GETS GOING
OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS
INDICATIVE OF A POWERFUL STING JET DEVELOPING OVER THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ALONG WITH TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENTS OVER
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE NAEFS IS SHOWING ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION SHOWING ABOUT
70KTS AROUND 3KFT NEAR KSNY BY 18Z. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
SIGNIFICANT HIGH WINDS OVER THAT AREA WHICH COULD CAUSE HIGH
IMPACTS. FORTUNATELY, THIS APPEARS TO BE A VERY PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM, SO THE DURATION OF THESE HIGH WINDS MAY BE RATHER
SHORTLIVED. SOME SNOWFALL WILL ALSO MOST LIKELY BE ACCOMPANYING
THESE WINDS, BUT AMOUNTS ARE LOOKING TO BE RATHER LIMITED AT
THIS TIME. ONE CANNOT RULE OUT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAINLY IN THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE THE STRONG COLD
ADVECTION/RISING THETA SURFACES AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE IN PLACE.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA, WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT
BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY MORNING, BUT THESE WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE CONSIDERABLY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW KICKS OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. WE WILL MOST LIKELY NOT
FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE UNTIL LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MILDER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2025
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS, BUT WILL LIKELY
EASE IN THE COMING HOURS AS THE SUN SETS. SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, BUT BESIDES THAT, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ430-431-
433.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ101-106-
110.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ104.
HIGH WIND WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ107.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ435>437.
SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...SF
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