646
FXUS65 KCYS 021739
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1139 AM MDT FRI MAY 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE AN UNSETTLED AND WET
WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT FRI MAY 2 2025
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES TODAY,
USHERING IN WARMER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COLDER AIR
ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT TODAY, HOWEVER, AS A RESULT,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE SEASONABLE SIDE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO +8C AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
FURTHER EASTWARD. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL JUMP ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COMPARED TO FRIDAY, SO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY DURING THIS TIME WITH NO CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL DOMINATE THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AND THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT FRI MAY 2 2025
UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL OMEGA BLOCK
TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE WESTERN
LOW MEANDERS TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHERE IT WILL SET UP
SHOP FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE EJECTING OUT. AS OF RESULT OF THE
EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE WESTERN LOW, STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WITH MULTIPLE 500MB VORTICITY
MAXIMA EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND INTO THE CWA. THE EASTERN
AND WESTERN LOW WILL DRIFTING SLIGHTLY CLOSER TOGETHER LATE SUNDAY,
LEADING TO AN ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL JET AT 700MB ACROSS THE REGION.
THEREFORE, STRONG, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, THOUGH HIGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
ADDITIONALLY, THE PRESENCE OF 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING OVERHEAD
AND SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY,
THOUGH EXACT AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO SOME MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. DESPITE THIS, SUNDAY WILL BE WARM IN THE 60S AND 70S
AREA WIDE BEFORE CLOUDS AND GENERALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN
MONDAY ONWARDS.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK DUE TO THE STAGNANT OMEGA BLOCK OVERHEAD. HOWEVER,
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
PRECIPITATION-FAVORED LOCATION, JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE WESTERN LOW.
AS A RESULT, BENEFICIAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY ONWARDS. TOTAL PRECIPITATION IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AND LIKELY
WILL NOT BE A "DROUGHT BUSTER," BUT SHOULD STILL BENEFICIAL MOISTURE
TO THE REGION. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE
AREA AS THE WESTERN 700MB LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARDS,
THOUGH DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE UNDER THIS UNSETTLED SYNOPTIC REGIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT FRI MAY 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHER THAN
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING THROUGH AND SCATTERED CUMULUS
AROUND 5-6 KFT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST AROUND 20
TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AND
ROTATING THROUGH EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...MN
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