435
FXUS65 KCYS 052105
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
305 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK UNDER
AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
- DRYING CONDITIONS BY LATE-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
ABOVE-NORMAL VALUES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH UP FROM THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON IN A MORE WIDESPREAD FASHION ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRETY OF THE CWA AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. A FEW STRONGER
CELLS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN NOTED ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY
COUNTIES WHERE A POCKET OF FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR AND MEAGER
MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG WERE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME MORE POTENT
CELLS WITH PLENTIFUL LIGHTNING AND SOME SMALL HAIL. LOOKING
ACROSS THE REGION, A FEW MORE PULSES LIKE THIS COULD BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BUT A SAGGING COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO
ALLEVIATE MOST OF THIS POTENTIAL WHILE LEADING TO FURTHER
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, THOUGH
SOME STRONGER DCAPE AROUND 800-1000 J/KG IS BORDERING OUR
NORTHEASTERN CWA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA, WITH AS MUCH AS 400-500 J/KG
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA, SO A FEW GUSTIER STORMS LIKE WHAT
WAS SEEN YESTERDAY MAY OCCUR. ALL OF THIS SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE
FOR THE MOST PART, WITH A FEW NEAR SEVERE INSTANCES POSSIBLE BUT
THEY WILL BE ISOLATED AND SPORADIC AT BEST. OTHERWISE, BREEZY
WINDS CONTINUE TODAY UNDER FAVORABLE SURFACE GRADIENTS ALONGSIDE
THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT THAT ARE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
REGION.
ON TUESDAY, ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED BUT THIS TIME FROM AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT AS THE REGION SITS BETWEEN THE NOW
PROGRESSING UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHEAST. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE NOW ALREADY IN PLACE FROM
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT ACROSS THE
LARAMIE RANGE, THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE CONSISTENT DAY OF
RAINFALL ALONGSIDE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. FOR PRECIPITATION,
A STEADY ALMOST PACIFIC NORTHWEST-LIKE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONGSIDE SOME MORNING FOG AND MIST.
FOR TEMPERATURES, WITH THE COOLER AIR FROM THE FRONT ALONGSIDE
CLOUD COVER INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT DAYTIME HEATING, HIGHS IN
WYOMING WILL BE LUCKY TO ESCAPE THE 50'S OUTSIDE OF THE BORDER
AND INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
STAY A BIT MORE MILD DUE TO MORE BROKEN CLOUD COVER. OVERALL QPF
TOTALS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 0.15-0.6 INCH, BUT HEAVIER
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AS WELL AS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CARBON COUNTY AND
CONVERSE COUNTY WHERE THE SAGGING FRONT TODAY IS HELPING TO FUEL
A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY ON. MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE UNDER THIS PATTERN, BUT WITH
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY BECOMING EASTERLY
TOMORROW, OUR USUAL SNOWIEST LOCATIONS OF THE SIERRA-MADRE AND
SNOWY RANGES WILL BE SHADOWED FOR THE MOST PART. SEVERAL INCHES
OF ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SNOWY
RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT GENERALLY ONLY THE PEAKS
SHOULD REALLY SEE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE EVEN NEAR ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A LOW-END ADVISORY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
WEDNESDAY, THE OMEGA BLOCK BREAKS DOWN AND BECOMES
TRANSIENT PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS MOVING OF THE BLOCK ALSO
WORKS IN OUR FAVOR ALLOWING THE LOW TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL.
SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP OFF A COMBINATION OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
UPSLOPE FROM EASTERLY FLOW. GIVEN THE WEAK DYNAMICS NOTHING SEVERE
IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED BUT SHOWERS MAY BLEED OVER INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLY.
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WARM UP TO ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70'S FRIDAY, AND 70'S INTO 80 DEGREE TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE KEEPS CLOUDS AT BAY. HOWEVER, LONG RANGE
MODELS DO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION MAKING A RETURN TO THE AREA LATER IN
EVENING SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1152 AM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A TRANSITION TO RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING AT NIGHT FOR ALL
TERMINALS. MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR T-STORMS IS 20Z TO 00Z AND
SHOWERS FROM 00Z TO 06Z. WYOMING TERMINALS LOOK TO DEVELOP FOG
AROUND 09Z AND LOW CLOUDS FOR THE NEBRASKA TERMINALS. THE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MVFR/IFR LATER TODAY AND REMAIN
MVFR/IFR FOR THE DURATION TOMORROW.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...MM
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