806
FXUS65 KCYS 080534
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1134 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHERN ZONES OF THE AREA.
- A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY AND LAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A STEADY CUMULUS FIELD BUILT IN ACROSS
THE REGION WHILE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POPPING UP IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND JUST SOUTH OF US IN COLORADO. ACTIVITY
LIKE THIS IN AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS UNDER A MEAGER ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST
INSTABILITY AND LIMITED FORCING. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE OF THE
GARDEN SHOWER/STORM VARIETY, BUT A STRONGER STORM WITH GUSTY
WINDS OR SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WITH SEVERE WEATHER
UNLIKELY. BY THIS EVENING, THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE IT'S TREK EASTWARDS INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, AND WITH IT ANY REMAINING
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA. CLEARING WILL THEN OCCUR AS WE MOVE
INTO THURSDAY ALONGSIDE A WARMING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING OVERSPREADS THE CWA. THIS WILL THEN BECOME THE MAIN
WEATHER FOCAL POINT, WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT
WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THE STRENGTH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIMITED AT BEST AS WELL AS BRIEF.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
FRIDAY, WILL BE WIDESPREAD 70'S FOR THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 20'S AND 30'S THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME POP UP SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON SPARKED BY
DAYTIME HEATING. THE DYNAMICS FOR FRIDAY ARE PRETTY MARGINAL MEANING
THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT THAT GREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER. THE SHEAR
IS 15 KNOTS OR LESS UNDER THIS RIDGE LEADING TO ANY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL COLLAPSE ON ITSELF SHORTLY AFTER
FORMING. CAPE VALUES PEAK AT 500 TO 1100 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING AREA WITH 200 TO 500 JOULES IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING A PRETTY STOUT DRY LAYER
VIRGA IS THE LIKELY OUTCOME WITH STRONG WINDS (EVEN BY WYOMING
STANDARDS) TO REACH THE GROUND AS ANY DEVELOPED STORMS COLLAPSE.
THIS WEEKEND LOOKS PRETTY DRY EVEN WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH
TO GIVE EXTRA LIFT TO ANY LINGERING MOISTURE. THERE IS SOME WEAK
VORT-MAXES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TO GIVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS BUT THE MOISTURE LOOKS VERY LIMITED AS
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW 20'S SATURDAY. SUNDAY'S SHOWER POTENTIAL
DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE IS SOME DECENT VORTICITY TO HELP SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS
AREN'T TOO THRILLED WITH THE DYNAMICS BUT ITS CURRENTLY A WAYS OUT
FOR ANY HIGH-RES MODELS TO RESOLVE THE FINER DETAILS FOR THE
WEEKEND'S SHOWER POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE (ABOUT 10%) FOR FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING NEAR SOME
TERMINALS, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE TAF AT
THIS TIME. MAINLY VFR THURSDAY, BUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO KCYS AND KLAR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...MN
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