496
FXUS65 KCYS 280550
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1150 PM MDT TUE MAY 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL AND NSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE MAY.
- SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT TUE MAY 27 2025
RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS ACTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
STORMS WILL STAY CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THERE IS MORE INSTABILITY PRESENT FROM MORE SUN AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES. LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING AND EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE HAS LEAD TO A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. SEVERE POTENTIAL
LOOKS RATHER LIMITED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE POCKETS OF INSTABILITY OVER/NEAR THE SOUTH
LARAMIE RANGE THAT EXCEED 1000 J/KG OF CAPE WHICH COULD LEAD TO
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. MAIN CONCERN WILL LIKELY BE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THESE SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED 50+ MPH
GUSTS, BUT SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LATE TONIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE AS A VORTICITY MAX
SWINGS INTO THE CWA FROM A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW WILL ALSO LIKELY LEAD TO THE RETURN OF LOW STRATUS FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS VORT
MAXES CONTINUE TO BE FUNNELED INTO THE CWA. SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS
EVEN MORE LIMITED ON WEDNESDAY WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER,
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. REGARDLESS OF THE MORE STABLE AIR, LIFT
FROM THE VORT MAXES WILL SUSTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPARSE ON THURSDAY AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING INCHES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE MOST PART,
MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY, BUT SOME LINGERING ENERGY
COULD SPARK A FEW HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY WILL ALSO MARK THE START OF A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT TUE MAY 27 2025
MESSY, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS THE PRIMARY SET-UP FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AND 700MB TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 9 TO
12C RANGE. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURE
INCREASE INTO THE 12 TO 15C RANGE AREA-WIDE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN
THE 80S TO NEAR-90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DAILY AS MULTIPLE VORTICITY LOBES
EJECT ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO GET CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
ABOUT MONDAY, BEFORE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES CAN BE NOTED. HOWEVER, BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A POTENT SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ADVECTING IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, MONDAY AND TUESDAY
CONTINUE TO HOST THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RETURN OF SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, MOST DAYS
IN THE LONG TERM BOAST SOME LEVEL OF INSTABILITY, AS EXPECTED WITH
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING, SO ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ANY AFTERNOON, BUT MONDAY/TUESDAY LOOKS TO HAVE THE
BEST POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT TUE MAY 27 2025
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: REMAINING ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY. BRIEF BREAK EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 10Z TO 14Z WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO IFR FOR ALL WESTERN NEBRASKA TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY
KCYS AND KLAR, AND TO MVFR FOR KRWL. BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWERING VIS AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AT KSNY AND KAIA. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING, THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...TJT
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