298
FXUS65 KCYS 290632
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1130 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN ON THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MAY
BEFORE COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOTED ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING OR
EXITING THE AREA. THE REGION DOES REMAIN UNDER SOME FAVORABLE
INGREDIENTS INCLUDING MODEST MUCAPE, BUT WITH TEMPERATURES AS
COOL AS THEY ARE ALONGSIDE THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, REACHING
STRONGER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS UNLIKELY. SOME
BREEZINESS TO THE WINDS IS ALSO PRESENT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25
KNOTS AS WELL AS SOME LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS DRIVEN BY NEARBY
SHOWERS OR STORMS, BUT THESE SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL.
OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE ONE MORE ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS
EVEN SOME ISOLATED FOG, THOUGH THIS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS
ABUNDANT AS IT WAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THEN AS DRIER AIR ENTERS
THE REGION FROM RIDGING BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD, WE SHOULD SEE
SKIES FINALLY CLEARING AND TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO WARM ON
THURSDAY. A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW COULD
ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW, BUT CONVECTION WILL BE
MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND MOSTLY RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS THEN REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WE CONTINUE A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. WARMER COMPARED TO THURSDAY
WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 8 CELSIUS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS EXPECTED WEST OF A DOUGLAS TO CHEYENNE LINE.
SATURDAY...THE LAST DAY OF MAY LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY DRY IN THE
WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT PASSAGE. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
SUNDAY...WITH A DECREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE, AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED. WARMER TEMPERATURES DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER.
MONDAY...AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES
OVERHEAD, AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA, LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY, SPARKING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.
TUESDAY...WITH A TROUGH ALOFT OVERHEAD, AND ADEQUATE LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE, WE ANTICIPATE SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN, WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM WESTERN COLORADO. LOOKS LIKE
ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPARK SCATTERED LATE DAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO SWING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, SOME FOG AND LOW
STRATUS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOG AND LOW STRATUS
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN NEBRASKA TERMINALS BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 10Z AND 15Z, WITH KSNY LIKELY STAYING IN IFR CONDITIONS AND
PATCHY FOG FOR MOST OF THIS MORNING. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR KCDR AND
THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING TERMINALS DUE TO WIND DIRECTION AND MIDLEVEL
CLOUD COVER. WENT WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KCYS TOWARDS SUNRISE WITH
TEMPO GROUPS FOR KLAR AND KRWL.
CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z THURSDAY AS THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR KCYS AND KLAR, BUT CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING AND COVERAGE ARE VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...TJT
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