412
FXUS65 KCYS 310503
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1103 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 655 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA, AND WSR-88D REFLECTIVITY SHOWING
THE DECAY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, HAVE UPDATED
THE GRIDDED FORECASTS TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A FEW SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE STORMS ARE FUELED BY A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVERHEAD WITH SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DECENT INSTABILITY.
WHILE THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO POSE MAJOR IMPACTS, SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS, BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES. THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE QUIET.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
FRIDAY, BUT STILL AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN, LOWERING
700 MB TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S ACROSS THE CWA. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT SO STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED. BEING ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE WILL ALSO
HELP KEEP CONDITIONS DRY, HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED HIGH
TERRAIN STORM OR TWO AS THERE IS A SMALL AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SUNDAY...WITH A DECREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE, AND WARM
TEMPERATURES AND A RIDGE ALOFT, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LARAMIE
VALLEY AND NEARBY MOUNTAINS. WARMER TEMPERATURES DUE TO LESS CLOUD
COVER.
MONDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD, AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FORMS NEAR OUR FORECAST AREA, LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY, SPARKING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.
TUESDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT AND COLD FRONT. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE WEST FLOW ALOFT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE BENEATH ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT PASSAGE. WITH
ADEQUATE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE, WE EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY...WEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND WITH SOME DRYING NOTED IN
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS, COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LESS, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...THE SLOW WARMING TREND CONTINUES BASED ON 700 MB
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. LOOKS LIKE ADEQUATE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1059 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ASCENT AHEAD OF
THIS DISTURBANCE HAS ALREADY INITIATED CEILINGS AROUND 6000FT
AT KCYS, KLAR, AND KCDR. THIS WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH WITH SOUTHEAST WYOMING TERMINALS NOT SEEING INCREASING
WINDS UNTIL LATE MORNING. CLEAR SKIES RETURN FOR THE MORNING AND
REST OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...AM
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