401
FXUS65 KCYS 252105
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
305 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE.
- WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2025
THE SHORTWAVE HAS KICKED OFF THE STORMS AROUND 18-19Z IN ALBANY
COUNTY. THE BULK SHEAR TODAY IS PRETTY MINIMAL MAXING AROUND
35KTS RESULTING IN PULSY/MESSY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS
THEY SLOWLY PUSH EAST THROUGH WYOMING. MODELS PUT ABOUT 2000
J/KG IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE THESE STRUGGLING STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE AND BECOME MORE LINEAR. HOWEVER, THE
PANHANDLE WAS CLOUDED OVER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SO
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW UNSTABLE THE PANHANDLE WILL
ACTUALLY BECOME FOR STORM CELL ORGANIZATION. SPC DID UPGRADE OUR
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE INTO A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING HAIL AND WIND. THURSDAY, OUR FLOW TURNS FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE TROUGH TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH. THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS
DRY ENOUGH TO NOT EXPECT PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON DESPITE
THE SHORT LIVED RIDGE PUSHING THROUGH ALLOWING FOR SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SOME MODEST CAPE IN THE PANHANDLE. WINDS
SHOULD BE CALMER AS WELL UNDERNEATH THIS SHORT LIVED RIDGE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2025
THE LONG TERM REMAINS ACTIVE AS WE SEE TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATE
THANKS TO SEVERAL SMALLER SYSTEMS ABLE TO KEEP HOTTER AND WARMER
RIDGING AT BAY, GIVING US A NEAR DAILY SHOT AT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. FRIDAY WILL BEGIN WITH TEMPERATURES
STARTING TO WARM BACK INTO THE MID 80'S TO MID 90'S ACROSS THE
CWA WITH A MEAGER CHANCE AT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, STRONGEST
IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THAT BEING SAID, THE ENVIRONMENT
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STRONGER ACTIVITY AS STORMS
INITIALIZE IN THIS AREA, BUT IF THEY DO THEY'LL HAVE LIMITED
TIME TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE EXITING OUR AREA. THAT CHANGES ON
SATURDAY AS WE SEE A JET MAX OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL US
PROVIDING THE FORCING NEEDED TO RESUME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE REGION, AS WELL AS BRINGING A SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO END
THE WEEKEND - BUT NOT BEFORE WE SEE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD OVERALL, WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80'S TO MID 90'S. BUT
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL BE POSSIBLE AND COULD PROMOTE A FEW INSTANCES OF
STRONGER ACTIVITY, BUT THE BEST ENVIRONMENT STILL LIES JUST TO
OUR EAST LIMITING ANY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE ACTIVITY.
MOVING INTO SUNDAY WE SHOULD SEE A COOLING TREND THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, WITH HIGHS NOT EXPECTED TO ECLIPSE 90 AT
THIS TIME. AND ON MONDAY ITSELF, HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
70'S TO 80'S THANKS TO THE COOLER FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONGSIDE THE ASSISTANCE OF DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE
LARAMIE RANGE EASTWARDS. SOME FAVORABLE INSTABILITY WITH A
COUPLE MORE SHORTWAVES SHOULD FUEL A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE DAY, AND ONCE AGAIN WE CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM OR
TWO BUT THE ENVIRONMENT STILL ISN'T PRIME FOR STRONGER SEVERE
WEATHER. RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN ON MONDAY, SO BY
TUESDAY EXPECT WIDESPREAD 80'S WITH SOME NEAR 90'S TO START
BUILDING BACK IN AS WE MOVE INTO JULY. EMBEDDED WEAKER
DISTURBANCES COULD ONCE AGAIN FUEL SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS, BUT
THE EXPECTATION OF STRONGER TO SEVERE ACTIVITY SEEMS ONCE AGAIN
LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2025
MVFR SLOWLY TRANSITIONING TO VFR BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORMS HIT
BETWEEN 00Z TO 06Z FOR THE PANHANDLE. THE WYOMING TERMINALS ARE
VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP AFTER 19Z FOR KLAR AND
MOVE EAST INTO KCYS BY 23Z. KRWL MAY GET SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP
NEAR IT BUT WASN'T CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT -RA IN THE TAF. THOSE
POSSIBLE SHOWERS FOR KRWL LOOK TO OCCUR AROUND 23Z. THE STORMS
LOOK TO INTENSIFY WITH GUST UP TO 45KTS BUT WITH THESE STORMS
GUSTS UP TO 60 KNOTS WOULDN'T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. BY 04Z THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HAVE MOVED EAST OUT OF OUR AREA AND BY 06Z
THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE FINISHED AS WELL. SKIES WILL QUICKLY
CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT FOR CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...MM
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